Intermarktet Analysis Archives - Page 59 of 63

The Most Important Chart In America

March 7, 2018 by JC

We want to be buying stocks. I don’t think I can be any more clear about that.

You guys know me as the obnoxiously bullish guy the past couple of years in the midst of “unprecedented pessimism”. I’m willing to admit that I have an unfair advantage that I just pay attention to price and purposely ignore everything else that most of you have to endure. This focus has allowed me to see clearly what is actually taking place instead of assuming that who I’m listening to or reading knows what’s going on.

Today I want to show you guys one single chart that I think tells the story of what the hell is going on here. It is awfully difficult for me to be bearish of stocks if the most important sectors in America are not just making new highs, but also breaking out to new relative highs. These leading sectors aren’t just doing well, they’re outperforming the rest. [Read more…]

[Premium] Monthly Conference Call Video Recording February 2018

February 15, 2018 by JC

This is the video recording of the February 2018 Conference Call. This month we’re starting with the weakness of the U.S. Dollar and how we can profit from the circumstances. The rotation into areas like Base Metals, Emerging Markets, Gold and Mining Stocks fits into that theme of weaker Dollars. We’re seeing strength in both develop market currencies and emerging.We’re seeing that strength in both developed market currencies and emerging.

Within the U.S., the relative strength continues to be in Financials and Technology, what I would consider to be the two most important sectors in America. Industrials and Transportation stocks look to rebound here as well. The weight of the evidence is suggesting that we want to be buying weakness in stocks, including the narrowing of credit spreads in the Bond Market and the outperformance from European and US Banks.

Here is the video in full where I lay out my best case for the coming weeks and months:

[Read more…]

Swiss Franc Futures Point To Higher Gold Prices

February 14, 2018 by JC

Long Precious Metals has been a big theme for us this year. I still think this is an area we need to be involved with and the weight-of-the-evidence is suggesting higher prices for the entire space.

Today I want to point out the recent breakout in Swiss Franc Futures. Historically there is a high positive correlation between this contract and the price of Gold. As we break out to new multi-year highs in Swissy, Gold looks likely to follow along: [Read more…]

[Premium] What Do We Do Now?

February 5, 2018 by JC

If you’ve been following along, I try and go out of my way to discuss risk management techniques, tools and signals when the market gives them to us. Whenever I lay out a thesis, I like to talk about what the market should look like in the case that we are correct, while at the same time outlining what the environment would look like if we are wrong. The idea is to picture both scenarios and as the data comes in, try to identify which outcome we’re in as quickly as possible.

Based on what we saw in some of the volatility related products this week, it’s clear someone got squeezed, or a bunch of someones. There was big money leaning in the other direction clearly. We’ve seen this sort of market behavior regularly – last April/May, then again in August. This was more extreme and most likely not the last time it happens. This is becoming normal. These leveraged products are a real risk when they all get squeezed simultaneously, there are forced liquidations. We saw elevated levels of volatility throughout the 90s and stocks kept rallying for years. So we can have volatility and rising stock prices at the same time. [Read more…]

[Chart Of The Week] Emerging Markets Outperformance Just Getting Started

February 5, 2018 by JC

It’s not a secret that Emerging Markets were the big loser for a long time. Since peaking during the 2010-2011 time period, the underformance of anything EM, Mining and Natural Resources has been clear to all of us. Gold was a terrible investment, mining stocks, stocks in mining countries and others in that area had been the worst place to put your money for many years. Although still not in a full fledged parabolic rise, we’ve seen what appears like a healthy completion of a massive base.

To me, this is suggesting that the outperformance we’ve been seeing out of Emerging Markets is just getting started. The initial burst from early 2016 was more of a beta trade. This is when stocks as an asset class bottomed and the worst of the worst, emerging markets in this case, outperformed because of their higher volatility nature and the simple fact that, the harder the pounce, the more violent the bounce. We’ve gone nowhere the past 15 months since that initial thrust of the lows. Until now. [Read more…]

Credit Spreads Are Still Narrowing, Showing Evidence Of Risk Appetite

February 3, 2018 by JC

The bond market is the biggest market in the world. Hello?

It’s easy to get caught up in the daily noise about some crypto currency or a biotech stock. But these are tiny tiny tiny itsy bitsy little markets. The bond market is a real market, with actual money in it and driven by the largest financial institutions and governments all over the world. If you want real information, the bond market is where to get it.

My friend Larry McDonald, a former Lehman Brothers Bond Trader, was on a recent podcast episode of Technical Analysis Radio talking about exactly this. I encourage you to give it a listen, it’s not long.

Today we’re taking a look at credit spreads. Why? Because we’re always watching them. In November when some people were freaking out about the sell-off in bonds, I tried to explain that it wasn’t about the bonds themselves, but the widening or narrowing of spreads that we were most interested in. [Read more…]

Monthly Charts Are For Everyone!

February 1, 2018 by JC

It’s amazing how many people in this world completely ignore monthly charts. I never understood it. It’s an exercise that only needs to be done once a month. It’s not like eating healthy or working out that you have to do it consistently for it to work. This is 30 minutes per month! 30 minutes! 12 times a year. That’s 6 hours of work that will be the most important and productive 6 hours of the entire year. Even if you have a short-term time horizon, all of these shorter-term trends come within the context of a much larger structural picture.

We’re now in February so, of course, we want to talk about what happened in January. I’ll have my friend Jeff Hirsch from Stock Traders Almanac on the podcast this week talking about the seasonal data that is so critical this time of year. But as far as price itself is concerned, we want to rip through all of the monthly charts like we do at the end of every month. I find it really helpful to not just look through the major U.S. and Global Indexes, but also individual sectors, stocks, commodities, currencies and intermarket relationships. We don’t have to look through all 6,000-7000 charts in our universe on monthly timeframes, but I do think a select group of charts should be reviewed consistently. [Read more…]

My Chart Summit 2018 Presentation: Applying Our Technical Tools To Today’s Markets

January 30, 2018 by JC

This weekend was our second annual Chart Summit. I still can’t believe all the amazing feedback that continues to come in after this event. Thank you all from the bottom of my heart, both the presenters and the audience members. I didn’t think we could make something even better than the original, but I think based on the responses, we may have actually pulled it off. Wow!

Our video production folks are hard at work putting all the videos together, but I’ve picked out the ones I did so I can share with all of you as soon as possible. The rest will be out this week.

On Monday, I shared the video of the first presentation I gave which was about my process. You can watch that here. In this next video, we take all of those tools and techniques I explained in Video 1 and apply them to the current market environment. Here you will see me walk through the top/down approach using current global and US markets. Then we’ll break things down to the individual sector & industries before finally isolating specific risk vs reward opportunities in individual stocks.

Here is the video in full: [Read more…]