Robert Sluymer has been a Technical Analyst for close to 3 decades. I really enjoy his intermarket, global macro perspective and the way he brings it all together in a similar way to what we do at our shop. It was hard for me to really disagree with anything Rob said during this podcast episode. It seems to me like him and I are on the same page on many levels. I didn’t make it easy on him, but he certainly brought the goods. I really enjoyed this episode from someone who brings 27 years of institutional experience at RBC and is now at an independent shop at Fundstrat. We discussed Bitcoin, the S&P500, Sector Rotation, Bonds and Precious Metals. This was a good one! Give it a listen [Read more…]
Copper and Emerging Markets Are The New Hotness
Have you noticed that with Tech and Software and other areas grinding sideways or lower, we’ve seen a consistent bid in Emerging Markets? Have you looked at Brazil lately? The last thing stock market bears want to see is rotation into these serial underperformers.
I don’t think this is a tiny story either. I think there is a much bigger theme going on here that would be irresponsible to ignore. First of all, let’s make something clear. Copper prices and Emerging Market stocks move together. You can’t argue with me on this one.
Copper doesn’t move with the “economy”. Copper doesn’t move with the S&P500. Copper is not a “Dr.” of any kind. Copper moves with Emerging Markets. Period:
[Read more…]
[Premium] Monthly Conference Call Video Recording October 2019
This is the video recording of the October 2019 Conference Call.
Three Charts That Tell The Risk Story
Stocks are still trying to break out of this massive range since early 2018. After some selling early this week, the range is still intact. I think this chart of the Global 100 Index tells the story best: [Read more…]
All Star Interviews Season 3, Episode 10: Willie Delwiche, Investment Strategist at Robert W. Baird
I’ve been following the work Willie Delwiche for years. As both a CFA and CMT Charterholder, I think it helps him really put things in perspective for the Advisors he works with at RW Baird. I really enjoyed the conversation we had about the markets and his process. Willie incorporates a number of breadth and sentiment measures that I’ve always been a fan of. He helps the Investment Advisors at the firm work with their clients and manages several portfolios as well. In this podcast episode we discuss a number of different things from Interest Rates to Gardening. It was fun to get to know Willie a bit more! [Read more…]
Video: Making The Bear Case For US Stocks
In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I make the bear case for US Stocks. I think we’ve been pretty clear about the fact that we believe stocks resolve this consolidation since 2018 higher, not lower. But I always think it’s important to take the other side and consider the alternative. What will the market environment most likely look like if we’re wrong, and we should be selling stocks rather than buying them. I think we brought up some good points here. [Read more…]
Consumer Staples To Signal A New Bull Market!
We look at a lot of intermarket relationships and try to analyze the same things, but from different perspectives. It’s all part of the weight of the evidence approach that we so often preach. Today we’re focusing in on the relative strength (or weakness) in Consumer Staples as a heads up for the next move in the US Stock Market.
Consumer Staples are funny bunch. Think about it like this: regardless of how bad the economy might get, as a society we’re still going to brush our teeth, wash our dishes, smoke cigarettes and drink beers. Those are Consumer Staples. They tend to be less volatile and underperform when stocks in general are going higher, but outperform when stocks are selling off, for the same reasons.
This chart here really shows this powerful relationship. Normally when we look at relative strength, we like to put the asset or sector in question as the numerator. But to really see the high positive correlation, we flipped the ratio below so the S&P500 is the numerator and Consumer Staples are the denominator. So if the chart at the bottom is going up, Staples are underperforming, and if it’s going down, Staples are outperforming. [Read more…]
[Premium] Monthly Conference Call Video Recording September 2019
This is the video recording of the September 2019 Conference Call.
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