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USD Testing Critical Levels

April 13, 2021 by Ian Culley

Several areas of the market have reached key levels of support or resistance.

Crude Oil continues to digest recent gains just below overhead supply near its former 2019 highs.

The Euro/Dollar is finding support at the recently violated 12-year downtrend line.

And the Emerging Markets ETF $EEM continues to consolidate near its 2007 highs.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar is also testing key levels.

USD strength has become a major market theme over the last couple of months — along with the potential effects it could have on global risk assets. A strong US Dollar could apply pressure to Emerging Markets, Commodities, and cyclical assets in general. This would challenge the global growth thesis and the rotation into cyclical areas we have seen play out over recent months.

On the flip side, there are areas of the Currency Market that continue to support the global growth narrative.

Last week, we pointed out the resiliency of commodity-centric currencies in the current market environment, highlighting the Canadian and Aussie Dollars.

This week, let’s take a closer look at another risk-on currency pair as it approaches an inflection point.
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Young Aristocrats (April 2021)

April 13, 2021 by Steve Strazza

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Dividend aristocrats are easily some of the most desirable investments on Wall Street. These are the names that have increased dividends for at least 25 years, providing steadily increasing income to longer-term minded shareholders.

As you can imagine, the companies making up this prestigious list are some of the most recognizable brands in the world. Coca-Cola, Walmart, and Johnson & Johnson are just a few of the household names making the cut.

Here at All Star Charts, we like to stay ahead of the curve. That’s why we’re turning our attention to the future aristocrats. In an effort to seek out the next generation of the cream-of-the-crop dividend plays, we’re curating a list of stocks that have raised their payouts every year for 5-9 years.

Introducing the Young Aristocrats. We like to say these are “stocks that pay you to make money”. Imagine if years of consistent dividend growth and high momentum & relative strength had a baby, leaving you with the best of the emerging dividend giants that are outperforming the averages.

By adding our technical analysis to the mix, the Young Aristocrat setups give you the opportunity to own the best of the market’s future blue-chip winners before they become must-own household names.

And maybe the best part? This list is not just designed for long-term investors. Any kind of investor or trader can use this list as it helps generate ideas across all timeframes, even the short-term. Remember, some of the most important filters we use for this list are momentum, relative strength, and proximity to new highs. So let’s keep it real, these stocks are going up across all time horizons.

With that said, let’s dive right in.

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Mystery Chart (04-13-2021)

April 13, 2021 by Grant Hawkridge

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge

Check out our latest Mystery Chart!

What we do here is take a chart that’s captured our attention, and remove the x and y-axes as well as any other labels that could help identify it.

This chart can be of any security, in any asset class, on any timeframe. Sometimes it’s an absolute price chart, other times it’s on a relative basis.

It might be a ratio, a custom index, or maybe the price is inverted. It could be all three!

The point is, when we aren’t able to recognize what’s in front of us, we put aside any biases we may have and scrutinize it objectively.

While you can try to guess the chart, the point is to make a decision…

So let us know what it is… Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?

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[Podcast] A Canadian Perspective w/ CIBC Portfolio Manager David Cox

April 12, 2021 by JC

In a market environment where Financials and Natural Resources have become leadership groups, how do we not have a conversation about Canada? Taking that one step further, we need to talk about how any investor, whether living in Canada or not, can take advantage of a potential structural swing in the trend for Canadian Equities.

David Cox is someone who I’ve discussed markets with for many years. We usually hook up every Spring in New York City at the annual CMT Symposium. It’s only fair that I let the rest of the world eavesdrop on our chats. He’s a bright guy with good perspective on all things stocks, interest rates, forex markets and even Bitcoin.

David is a Portfolio Managers at CIBC and is a true trend follower. He tells it like it is. I really enjoy that about him. I was looking forward to having this conversation, and he exceeded all expectations. David really brings it in this episode!!

I hope you enjoy. And make sure to give him a follow on Twitter @DavidCoxWG

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The Minor Leaguers (04-12-2021)

April 12, 2021 by Steve Strazza

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

In our continued effort to identify individual equities that fit within our larger Macro thesis, we recently rolled out our latest bottoms-up scan: “The Minor Leaguers.”

We write a post every other week where we outline some of our favorite setups from this universe of stocks.

We’ve already had some great trades come out of this column and couldn’t be happier about the early feedback.

Moving forward, we’ll be rotating this column with “Under The Hood” each week.

In order to make it onto our Minor League list, you must have a market cap between $1 and $2B. There are also price and liquidity filters.

Then, we simply sort the stocks by their percentage from new highs. Easy done.

The idea is to catch the strongest names while they’re still small and have serious upside potential. If any of these stocks ever climb up the ranks to the big-leagues, just imagine the returns. We’re looking at 5-10x moves just to break into large-cap status!

And what better time than now to launch a small-cap focused column? We’ve seen very strong evidence of a structural rotation down the market cap scale, suggesting a new period of outperformance from small-caps in the coming months and quarters.

This column is a great way to take advantage of that trend.

Let’s dive in and check out this week’s list of the hottest stocks in the Minor Leagues.

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[Options Premium] An Unlikely Spring Forecast

April 12, 2021 by Sean McLaughlin

During our latest Options Conference call, me and JC riffed on a couple potential trades — one of which I wanted to wait a bit on, since it’s not a type of play I do with great frequency.

Well, on Friday, the stock had a nice little pullback nearer to recent IPO support which offers us a nice opportunity to get positioned at a bit of a discount, so I’m going to pull the trigger today. [Read more…]

New Dow Theory Revisited

April 12, 2021 by JC

Dow Theory is one of my favorite topics. It’s fascinating how much these lessons from over 130 years ago still help in today’s times.

Think about this, we’re using Charlie Dow’s principles to analyze assets that never even existed back then. The key to remember here is that we don’t change. Humans are the constant in this equation. And that’s what we’re analyzing, at the end of the day: Human behavior. [Read more…]