Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by JC
What would it take to finally end the long-term bear market in commodities?
How about Crude Oil Futures trading below zero?
Yes, remember when Oil traded in the negatives last year?
This is something most of us never thought was possible. If you had this on your list of possibilities, kudos to you I guess.
I didn’t. [Read more…]
Chatting with the team this morning, something that stuck out and we all agreed on is that the Megacaps are starting to show signs of re-asserting their dominance. And that it won’t be a one-day event. Just look at NFLX, MSFT, AAPL, and the like and you’ll likely see what we’re seeing.
And the stock that stands out the most to us right now is Google $GOOG.
Check out this chart: [Read more…]
by JC
Not much change in sentiment over the past week, which remains heavily tilted toward optimism. While this suggests a higher risk environment, those risks have yet to be realized. Sentiment extremes tend to provide more timely signals of stock market lows than stock market peaks. Fear spikes while greed persists.
In the current environment, optimism emerged at a time of strong underlying momentum in the stock market indexes and while rally participation was broadening, not narrowing. Elevated optimism remains a tripping hazard for the market but unless and until we see momentum roll over and breadth deteriorate, such stumbles are likely to be characterized by bouts of volatility rather than a sustained unwinding in optimism (which is the part of the sentiment cycle when stocks are most vulnerable).
Strong breadth is helping mitigate some concerns over excessive optimism. The new high list has expanded and the number of net new highs on NYSE + NASDAQ have now surpassed their April 2010 peak.
[Read more…]
by JC
This is the video recording of the January 2021 Conference Call.
by Louis Sykes
From the desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts
This is an issue that pretty much everyone encounters at some time or another…
Overcomplicating correlations.
I’m going to share a few recent examples, and then discuss how overthinking these relationships could potentially end in a world of hurt.
by JC
It’s NOT about what’s happened over the past year.
Zoom out.
This is about what’s been happening throughout the cycle, which appears to have ended. [Read more…]
by Louis Sykes
From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts
New Mystery Chart!
For those new to this exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it’s a custom index or inverted, who knows!
We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.
You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now. Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?
by JC
Last Friday I sat down with Aaron Task of Seeking Alpha for a fun chat about today’s market environment. Aaron and I have known each other for years from his days as the Digital Editor of Fortune as well as Editor-in-Chief of Yahoo! Finance. We also have a lot of friends in common.
It’s always interesting talking to someone from the media about how little media I consume. In addition to the benefits of following price, and ignoring the “news”, we discuss the current sector and market cap rotation we’re seeing, the next direction for Bitcoin and Crypto Currencies, as well some other important tools and strategies that we’re incorporating right now.
It’s always fun to catch up with Aaron. He just serves me alley-oops.
Enjoy! [Read more…]
