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Alfonso’s Daily Note,
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Is Biotech Next?

July 14, 2025

As this market continues to broaden out, we’re starting to see signs of rotation into areas that have been overlooked and underowned for a long time.

This is especially true for the rate-sensitive groups such as Builders, Banks, and Biotech.

Strazza calls them the Three B’s.

And while the playbook is starting to work, we’re not quite there yet.

We’ve seen some rotation into these names — especially Builders, which have caught a bid, and Banks, which are beginning to play catch-up.

Biotech still needs work.

However, that might be about to change.

Take a look at the Equal Weight Biotech ETF relative to the Equal Weight S&P 500.

...
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The Minor Leaguers (07-14-2025)

July 14, 2025

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

Nowadays, to make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new...

All Star Options

Small Size, Big Conviction

July 14, 2025

I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it again: I never really know which trades are going to be my biggest winners.

Sure, sometimes I get a setup that checks all the boxes:

  • Price action looks great
  • volume confirms
  • sentiment is lined up
  • and I feel like I’ve got a winner on my hands

But more often than not, those aren’t the trades that end up paying me the most.

The ones that really work? They usually sneak up on me. Quiet names. Unexpected moves. Ones I nearly talked myself out of. Which is why I’ve learned—through many hard lessons—to keep my size consistent.

This is one of the most important forms of discipline I’ve developed as a trader: Treating every trade the same.

Same sizing. Same process. Same rules.

Whether I’ve got massive conviction or mild curiosity, I try to keep the structure tight and the exposure sane.

Why? Because the alternative is a psychological nightmare.

If I go all-in on a trade I’ve hyped up in my head, and it turns out to be dead wrong? I don’t just lose money—I lose mental capital.

I then second-guess myself. I hesitate on the next trade. I spin into...

All Star Options

[Options Premium] Getting a Jump on This Breakout

July 14, 2025

 

I've been loving how this boring utility space name has been consolidating near all-time highs since February. Most people have probably been bored to tears if they've been in it. Longs are comfortable, shorts are asleep. Great.

With earnings coming up later this month, I think we've got the catalyst we need to surprise people and see this stock breakout. I want to get a head start...

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 7/14/25

July 14, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Rolling ARKK to September options.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

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The Strazza Letter

Top Down Trade of the Week (7/12/2025)

July 12, 2025

Welcome back for another Top Down Trade of the Week

This is a classic leadership scan.

We start with the best sectors, then drill into the subgroups. We pick one, and then take a look at the top stocks in it. 

This week’s standout is Materials, holding steady at the number four spot in our sector rankings.

 

It’s not the first time we’ve highlighted Materials since we began publishing this scan. Strength has been quietly building under the surface for a while now.

Just last week, $XLB posted its best relative performance versus the broader market in over five years.

I'm open to the idea of a big rotation into cyclicals in the back half of this year.

Here is a look at our overall industry rankings, which shows...

All Star Charts Gold Rush,
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(Commodities Weekly) We Nailed Copper. Here’s What’s Next 📊

July 11, 2025

For months now, we’ve been pounding the table on Copper. 

Now, the trade is on fire. Copper futures had their best day ever on Tuesday after news of new tariffs from the Trump campaign.

This move also resulted in the first overbought reading on the 14-day RSI since March, marking the beginning of a new bullish momentum regime.

We've also been betting on the miners playing catch-up, and sure enough, that's working, too.

But as strong as that move was, Copper isn’t alone. 

Gold rang the dinner bell over a year ago with new all-time highs in March 2024. 

Since then, we've watched precious metals like Silver,...

Alfonso’s Daily Note,
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Metals in Motion

July 11, 2025

Metals are on the move this week — and in a big way.

Silver, Copper, Palladium, Platinum… All printing fresh breakouts at the same time.

Gold kicked things off last year. It’s been stair-stepping higher for months, leading the charge. But recently, it’s cooled off — and now the rest of the complex is following suit.

Silver’s breaking out from a massive base and pushing into territory we haven’t seen in over 13 years.

 

We think 50 is on the table — and it could get there fast.

Copper’s part of this conversation too. Always has been.

We don’t call it Dr. Copper for nothing — it’s a key read on growth and the global economy.

And this week? It just logged its best single-day gain in history.

 

Big moves like this usually mean one of two things:

A blow-off...

The Strazza Letter

Hooray for Bitcoin!

July 11, 2025

After several false starts, the world’s largest cryptocurrency finally got it done. 

With some solid momentum right out the gate, my only question is… 

How far will it run?

And I think it’s bigger than BTC this time around. I’m looking for the altcoins to finally buy in and kick off a broad crypto bull market. 

If you look beyond the blue-chip alts, most of these tokens have been going through accumulation for years— carving out massive rounding bottoms.

I’m looking for these patterns to morph into fresh uptrends… one after the next. And soon.

What I’m really saying is get ready for an altcoin summer.

And here’s the main reason why. 

 

The squeeze indicator in the lower pane shows that volatility is absolutely depressed in BTC, and has been for a while. 

...