After drastic underperformance since March, one chart suggests that Gold could be setting up to outperform large-cap Indian stocks in the coming weeks and months. [Read more…]
Last week we suggested that the major indices could be due for a pause after a massive run in November.
So far we’ve seen the large-cap indices churn sideways, but the mid and small-cap indices pushed to new recovery highs.
Today those mixed signals continue. Not just in India, but around the globe.
Let’s take a look at what we’re seeing and how we’re approaching it.
In today’s chart, we’re looking at the strongest sector of the market testing a key level.
Let’s get into it.
I feel like we’ve seen this before…
Here is the chart of Bitcoin. Uptrend, Consolidation, Breakout, Uptrend Consolidation, Breakout, Uptrend Consolidation…
If this were one of those tests you took in grade school where they ask you what’s next in this pattern, you would say Breakout and then Uptrend right?
Yea that’s what I’m gonna go with.
It hasn’t done much since breaking out above 10,000. But if we’re above that, this is a long for sure I think.
You math majors can go back and do the calculations on the % appreciation from those breakouts up to their eventual cycle peaks.
But the way I see it, even just a fraction of that sort of behavior can be a game changer for the portfolio. And that’s enough for me.
Where do I have this wrong. What am I missing?
In an environment where volatility has picked up at the index level and there are more mixed signals in the market, we want to be more selective in the longs and shorts we put on.
An important part of tightening up our risk management across the board is knowing what timeframe is relevant to us, both at the portfolio and individual stock level.
Today we want to look at an example in Jubilant Foodworks to highlight this concept. [Read more…]
That’s why one of the most important concepts we discuss in our work is the need for patience and knowing what we’re going to do before it happens. By having a plan in place we can execute our plan once the conditions we’ve been patiently waiting for come to fruition.
A great example of this has been Crude Oil over the last few months.
It’s been a monster run since March for equities, especially in the United States. Rotation, breadth expansion, momentum thrusts, all the works.
So what’s going to stop this train? The opposite of those things, most likely.
I think the bear case starts with small-caps. I was taught to dance with the girl who brought me to the dance. Small-caps were one of the key reasons why we got so bearish in early October 2018 and then again this year in early February 2020.
So why ignore them now? I say stick with that.
As we discussed last night on our Monthly Charts Strategy Session (Premium), if you’re going to be shorting stocks and betting on the end, I think both Small-caps and Micro-caps need to be below their June highs: [Read more…]
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
A weak US Dollar has been a big theme of ours since it broke down a few months ago…and this week it’s back in focus.
Let’s take a look at the chart and discuss why it needs to be on your radar in the days/weeks ahead.