One of the more interesting scenarios across the global market place is what is happening in the US Dollar, and the Euro component more specifically. Remember, the Euro represents a majority in the entire US Dollar Index. On Monday, the Euro engulfed the prior 13 trading sessions. This means that it made a new low, below the past few weeks trading, and then reversed to close at a new high, above any of the highs over the past few weeks. [Read more…]
[Chart Of The Week] Is This US Dollar Breakout The Real Thing?
I like to keep an open mind. The one thing I’m certain of is that I’m not certain of anything. So I weigh all of the evidence and then try to find the best risk vs reward opportunities based on the cards that we’ve been dealt. We can’t let our emotions impact our decision making, it has to be 100% dependent on the data at hand. Today, I think one of the more interesting situations is in the US Dollar Index. [Read more…]
[Premium] Weekly Open Letter About The Current Market Environment
In this week’s members-only letter we discuss the following topics:
- What Is The Bullish Case For U.S. Stocks
- Why I Am Still Leaning Towards The Bearish Side For Stocks
- My Favorite Short In U.S. Stocks
- Why We Want To Be Long Volatility
- What The Relative Strength In U.S. Banks Means To Me?
- Why Commodities Have Been The Best Place In The World
- What If The U.S. Dollar Rallies?
- What Do We Make Of The Historic Extreme Bullish Sentiment In Bonds?
Why We’re Back To Tactically Fading Strength
From the desk of Thomas Bruni @BruniCharting
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The weight of the evidence has been building in favor of the bears over the last week or two, making the US equity weakness this week anything but surprising. Throughout the duration of this post I’ll outline the evidence that I’ve been noticing over the last two weeks and what it means for us as market participants moving forward.
Yen Strength – The Yen broke out structurally late last year and hasn’t looked back since. Tactically my upside targets were hit this week, but structurally this market has a lot more room to run. Given the high negative correlation between the Yen and US equities, this should continue to be a headwind for equity markets going forward. [Read more…]
[Premium] The Best Commodities & Currency Trades Today
I just finished my Commodities and Currencies review for the week and wanted to share some of my notes. Here you go: [Read more…]
[Premium] Weekly Open Letter About The Current Market Environment
In this week’s members-only letter we discuss the following topics:
- S&P500, DJIA, Nasdaq100: Buy, Sell or Hold?
- What Is The Best Way To Invest In The Chinese Stock Market?
- What Other Asian Countries Should We Be Buying?
- Which Commodities Are The Next Ones To Rip Higher?
- With Interest Rates On The Rise, How Do We Profit?
- Why Is Dollar/Yen The Most Important Chart For U.S. Stocks?
- What Other Currencies Do We Need To Own Today?
Forget The Fed, We Want To Watch The Yen!
The noise surrounding the Federal Reserve is some of the silliest and biggest wastes of time in all of the financial industry. The media loves to talk about it, because well, they get paid to talk, not to help you make money in the market. Discussing the Japanese Yen for hours on end isn’t sexy. That doesn’t drive traffic or boost ratings. But if you’re here to try and make money in the market, it’s actually the most important thing to be watching here.
Long-time readers and Members of All Star Charts know how much I’ve been pounding the table about watching the Yen to gain insight on the direction of the U.S. Stock Market. Notice how last month when Yen put in its top (USD/JPY bottom), the S&P500 made its low on the very same day. The Nasdaq Composite also put in its low that day, so did the Russell2000, so did the Mid-cap 400, so did the Russell Micro-cap Index, so did the NYSE Composite. I can keep going, but I think you get the point. [Read more…]
[Premium] Weekly Open Letter About The Current Market Environment
In this week’s members-only letter we discuss the following topics:
- Our Focus Is On Japanese Yen and Ignoring Any Federal Reserve Commentary
- Which U.S. Stock Market Indexes Have Hit Our Upside Targets?
- What Do We Need To See To Get Short U.S. Stocks?
- The List Of Commodities That Are Now In Play
- Why Financials Will Keep Outperforming
- What Do Semiconductors and Industrials Have In Common?
- Which Sectors Are Benefiting Most From Higher Interest Rates?
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