Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
The TSX Composite is peaking its head out above resistance and into the fresh air of all-time highs, but can the recent strength continue?
Today we’re looking for answers in two sectors that matter, Financials and Energy, which account for roughly 50% of the index’s weighting.
One of my favorite parts of living in Sonoma, CA is going to the local market. I’m right in the heart of wine country so anything protein or produce is going to be off the charts. On the way out of the store on weekends and/or early in the week, it gives me a chance to glance at the papers and magazines. This happens much less frequently these days vs when I lived in New York City and could catch a peek at some of the cover stories every day and usually multiple times on every block.
So this weekend I’m walking out of the store double fisting sea bass (on my way to make Greek Carpaccio), and caught a quick glance at the Barron’s cover story which suggested selling Railroad stocks! I’m certainly not going to take the time to read what it says, but I saw enough to turn it into a blog post explaining why I want to take the other side. To be clear, I don’t mean to pick on Barron’s. They’re a legendary publication and quote me regularly. But that doesn’t mean we have to agree all the time. [Read more…]
Raoul Pal is someone whose work I’ve admired for years, both for his global macro perspective on the markets and the amazing job he and his team have done with Real Vision. I like how they’ve removed a lot of the conflicts of interest that come with traditional media reporting and the sensationalizing that comes along as a result.
As a Macro Analyst, he does a lot of intermarket, or “cross-asset”, analysis. Raoul and I see the world through a similar lens. One area where we differ is in our experiences throughout our careers and how that’s shaped our view points and biases. I really enjoyed that part of the conversation. As far as current markets are concerned, Raoul thinks that negative rates in the U.S. are a real possibility. He’s pointing out 30+ year trends in the bonds market. We discuss Bonds as well as a wide variety of topics in this episode.
I really want to thank Raoul for coming on. He was an excellent guest. Make sure to follow him on Twitter @RaoulGMI
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When was the last time Small-caps were not a mess? At least a year now right?
The bearish argument has been that small-caps (and others) are underperforming the large-cap stocks and therefore, the divergence is a warning signal that the market is about to fall apart. Along the way, I’ve asked the question,
What if we get rotation into small-caps rather than the rotation out of large-caps that you keep promising me?”
In other words, instead of the last ones finally falling, what if the stocks down in the dumps get their act together and start playing catch-up?
What does the market look like in that scenario?
Well, I’m still in the camp that we see the latter, rotation into small-caps, not the former where the S&P500 crashes and we go into recession. Here are small-caps relative to large-caps. If we are going to start to see outperformance from the little guys, this would certainly be a logical place for it to start: [Read more…]
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
This morning JC did a review of the S&P 600 sectors to identify the structural trends of the major small-cap indices.
This post is a follow-up to outline a few names that have gotten our attention on the long side.
If you’ve been in our world long enough you’ve heard someone say, “Technical Analysis Is Voodoo”. As far as I’m concerned, the more people who think that the better it is for us! As Technicians we are analyzing the behavior of the market and its participants. Our human emotions are driven by fear and greed and therefore markets trend, by nature. This is why Technical Analysis works. Today I sit down with Sebastian, the wine maker at Rancho Maria Winery in Sonoma, CA, to discuss this very topic. [Read more…]
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
There are a lot of messy charts out there, but we’ve been discussing the importance of having a global perspective and using weekly/monthly charts to stay focused on structural trends as opposed to the day to day noise/chop we’ve been experiencing.
Today we want to look at an area showing relative strength that’s still offering opportunities for those who need to put cash to work.
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This is not just a Stock Market, this is a “Market of Stocks”. And not just Stocks from America, but Stocks all over the world. Stocks don’t move up and down because of what is happening in New York or Washington DC. They move based on the supply and demand dynamics for the asset globally. To suggest otherwise is irresponsible.
Let’s look around the world, because it’s the right the thing to do. And let’s see how stocks look globally, rather than be narrow minded into thinking the world revolves around what happens within US borders. [Read more…]
