Global Archives - All Star Charts

It’s Time! We’re Buying Bonds Now

January 25, 2020 by JC

I like to keep an open mind. When the data suggests getting more aggressive towards stocks, that’s what we’re going to do. When the data points a more defensive approach, then that’s what we’ll do too.

We’ve had a heck of a run in stocks since the summer, and now I think it’s time for a break, at least at the index level. Remember, regardless of overall market conditions there will still always be some stocks going up and some going down. In fact, I think Utilities see some outperformance here and I listed which stocks we want to own. So far they’re working.

Anyway, so why the new defensive position? Well, the things we said needed to happen for us to pull back are starting to happen. It’s really as simple as that.

Let’s get into it: [Read more…]

The World’s Most Important Charts

January 18, 2020 by JC

You guys know that I just tell it like it is. I don’t care what happens. The stock market can double or can get cut in half. Gold can go to zero tomorrow or to 10,000/oz and I won’t care. I’m too old to worry about the economic or social implications of market moves. Been there, done that and it doesn’t help. We have to look at everything as objectively as possible.

Now, with that said, I have some thoughts that some of you may not appreciate. But I’m not here to tell you what you want to hear. I’m here to tell you what I’m seeing right? So bear with me.

For those of you who have been around here a while, you remember just how bearish I was towards the US Dollar coming into 2019. The Dollar rolling over was a big catalyst for why we were so bullish of precious metals throughout the first 3 quarters of 2019. It wasn’t until September last year that we said, ok it’s time to get out.

That’s just a quick little history of our thought process, to give some of you newcomers perspective on just how open minded we are over here. Looking back, as well as precious metals did, the Dollar never rolled over. We got the gold trade right, but got the Dollar wrong. The US Dollar Index did not fall, but it didn’t rise either. It just sat there.

So now what? [Read more…]

If You Gotta Be Short…Short These Global ETFs

January 16, 2020 by Tom Bruni

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Thank you to everyone who responded to this week’s mystery chart.

A lot of mixed responses on this depending on their timeframe. Some were shorting the failed move and seeing how it developed, while others were patiently waiting for another breakout attempt to get long.

With that as our backdrop, let’s take a look at this week’s chart. [Read more…]

Money Game Podcast: The Mean Reversion Heuristic (EP.14)

January 10, 2020 by JC

There are a lot of people out there who would rather fight trends than take advantage of the ones that are already in place. The idea is they are always looking for the reversion to the mean. And while some think prices always come back to the mean, it’s often forgotten that the mean can also catch up (or down) to price. I learned this lesson the hard way in 2013 and it has served me well ever since. This episode is short and sweet but I think adds a tremendous amount of value.

When I asked Phil to comment on the subject, he said, “Give me someone who can adapt, someone who is flexible over someone who is a rocket scientist any day because I can teach him to ignore that voice inside his head telling him that breakouts must revert.

The mean reversion heuristic is just one more example of how conventional thinking styles, that come hard wired in most of us and which serve us just fine in most environments, require suspension in the trading turret.”

Here is the podcast episode in full:
[Read more…]

Q&A: I Struggle A Lot With Time Horizon

January 9, 2020 by JC

I’m really fortunate that I get to interact with traders and investors from all over the world on a regular basis. I receive emails with great questions all the time. And while I’m happy to share my thoughts, it’s these questions that really help force me into thinking about a lot of different things. So I’m learning every single day from this simple exercise. Please keep them coming!

Here is a good example of some of the questions I get. This one comes along quite often, in fact. So I wanted to share it with you and include my response. [Read more…]

All Star Interviews Season 3, Episode 14: Quint Tatro, CIO at Joule Financial

January 7, 2020 by JC

This week on the podcast I’m thrilled to have Quint Tatro join me as our guest. I’ve been following his work for a long time and have always appreciated his technical approach to managing portfolios at his advisory firm Joule Financial. This was a great conversation where Quint walks us through how he got to Technical Analysis in the first place and how he applies those methods on a daily basis. We went over the overall stock market and how he wants to overweight International Stocks and Emerging markets heading into 2020. He also likes Gold bigger picture here and the mining stocks that come a long with it. I really enjoyed this one. Give it a listen!
[Read more…]

Media Appearance: Stocks, Bonds, Gold & Energy

December 30, 2019 by JC

I was down in New York City this week and dropped by the Nasdaq to chat with my old pal Frances Horodelski on BNN Bloomberg. Frances and I have been rapping about the markets for the better part of the past decade. It was great to chat with her once again.

In this short clip, we talk about the new bull market for stocks, rotation into Emerging Markets and Energy, where we think gold goes and how bad bonds are going to get hit if interest rates get to the 3% mark we’re looking for in the US 10-year Yield.

Here’s the clip in full: [Read more…]

It’s A Good Time To Think

December 29, 2019 by JC

There seems to be more data available than ever as we head into the end of this decade. It’s up to us to decide how we use it, or ignore it in many cases.

I have my process and everyone else has theirs. But one thing that is a common denominator among all of us is this current period of resetting before we begin a new year.

This week I asked Phil if this calendar thing was something we made up as humans or if this is something real that we should embrace. This was his response:

Rebirth is a universal theme. Dates are milestones adding rhythmic structure. Not “required” but common across cultures and eras.”

I’m glad he said that because I enjoy this time of the year. I like thinking about the things we’re thinking about.

We’ll have a lot more charts and trade ideas this week, of course, as we approach our Monthly Conference Call Thursday (email me if you have not registered).

But for now, I have a question. No one ever talks about 1974 being the start of the bull market, which was the low of that period. You tell me it was 1982, once they finally broke out. Which makes perfect sense. But then why do so many people today call 2009 the start of this bull market? Think about the implications of a 2013 or 2016 or even 2018 start…. [Read more…]