Global Archives - All Star Charts

Why We’re Buying Stocks & Selling Rocks

November 18, 2019 by JC

Let’s take a step back and talk about what a huge waste of money I think it is to own gold. It’s not just that I don’t think it goes up in value, it’s more about what else we could be doing with that money. It’s the opportunity cost here that I believe burns the hole in your pocket. Will our money be treated better in rocks or in stocks? I still think it’s in stocks.

In early October, I put out a note reiterating why we wanted to be selling gold. This is after over a year of a bullish approach towards the yellow metal. So to be clear, I am not a gold bug or a gold hater. The truth is that I couldn’t care less whether gold doubles in price or gets cut in half. It’s not my problem. For me, Gold is just another asset in a humongous world of many assets. If you think it’s anything more than that, I believe you’ve already lost.

As a reminder, a big reason why we were so bullish of Gold throughout the 4th quarter last year and beyond was because Commercial Hedgers had on their largest net long position in history. Commercial hedgers in Gold actually hedge. So the fact that they were net long was a huge tell. This, coupled with the fact that I was incredibly bearish of stocks at the time, made Gold one of our favorite long positions.

Today, the exact opposite is true. I’ve been one of the more vocal stock market bulls throughout the Fall. Commercial Hedgers built their largest net short position in gold of all time, AND Gold hit our upside objectives. There is no, and has been no, reason to own rocks this Fall.

Here is the brick wall that Gold ran into, which was former support back in 2011-2012 before breaking down in 2013. The Principle of Polarity is one of the most important concepts, not just in technical analysis but, in understanding market behavior period. [Read more…]

Earth Breaks Out To All-Time Highs

November 16, 2019 by JC

If you weren’t too busy reading reports of upcoming recessions, you may have noticed that the MSCI World Index broke out to new all-time highs this month. The award for best ETF Ticker goes to the good folks at iShares: $URTH

After a 21-month bear market, the planet Earth is now starting a new leg higher. I continue to believe very strongly that if stocks are above last year’s highs, it is incredibly irresponsible not to be aggressively long. [Read more…]

The Wisdom in WisdomTree ETFs

November 15, 2019 by JC

There is information everywhere. We analyze both the Indexes and the ETFs. We look at markets all over the world priced in both local currency and in US Dollars. We often use Gold as the denominator as well as the Indexes themselves to analyze relative strength. It’s one big giant web of money flow.

Today I want to call your attention to an interesting divergence that has come at important turning points in the past. Specifically I’m referring to the Wisdom Tree Hedged Exchange Traded Funds for Europe and Japan: $HEDJ and $DXJ respectively. These funds are priced in local currencies as opposed to most other ETFs around the world that are priced in US Dollars.

First, here is the Europe Index Fund priced in Euro breaking out to all-time highs. I’ve been chuckling to myself a lot lately because when was the last time you could say the words “Europe” and “all-time” highs in the same sentence with a straight face? [Read more…]

Safe Havens Stuck Below Overhead Supply

November 11, 2019 by JC

When stocks are in strong uptrends, they tend to not only do well on an absolute basis, but they outperform their alternatives as well. Two obvious ones are Gold and Bonds.

So if stocks are going to fall hard, like so many people keep telling me, we are likely to see a bid in Precious Metals and US Treasury Bonds. As it turns out, however, we’ve only seen the exact opposite – bonds and metals struggling below overhead supply.

Back in August I made the case that if stocks were going much higher, as we thought they would, then the S&P500 will hold support at the late December lows relative to both Gold and Bonds. You can watch that short video here. This is what that chart looks like now: [Read more…]

Video: New Weekly & Monthly Highs Everywhere

November 5, 2019 by JC

In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I talk about all of the new highs we’re seeing on both Weekly and Monthly charts. We’ve been pointing to the improvements in market breadth in recent months and how we’ve been getting an expansion in positive participation, not a contraction. This week we started to finally see this work its way into the weekly and monthly charts, but that doesn’t change anything we didn’t already know. We continue with the breadth discussion by pointing out that the world doesn’t start and end with the 52-week highs list. We’re seeing breadth improvements in the 21-day high and 13-week high lists and I’m in the camp that we’ll ultimately see that reflected on the 52-week high list as well. It’s a process, remember:
[Read more…]

Money Game Podcast Bonus Episode 11.1 – Commodities Break 8-year Downtrend

November 5, 2019 by JC

This week I sat down with Pearlman to talk about the fact that stocks are making new highs but the amount of bulls betting on higher prices is near now lows. It was a really interesting conversation so make sure to check it out.

At the end of our chat Phil asked me about some comments I made recently regarding the CCI Commodities Index.

Here is the chart he was referring to where Commodities are doing something they haven’t done in 8 years. I think it’s worth pointing out for sure: [Read more…]

Money Game Podcast: Stocks At New Highs & Bulls At New Lows (EP.11)

November 4, 2019 by JC

In this episode of the Money Game Podcast Phil and I talk about the stock market making all-time highs while sentiment points to very few bulls. This is an interesting dynamic where the behavior of the market is pointing to one thing and the behavior and emotions of society are saying something different. I’ve been in the camp that this negative sentiment unwind is precisely the catalyst to take stocks much higher, not just in the U.S. but around the world. It’s very rare to have stocks this strong, yet so few people betting on higher stock prices. It’s pretty awesome. We also talk about the deterioration, or at least an end to the expansion we’re seeing, in the upside participation in stocks. We’re seeing MORE stocks, sectors and global indexes participating to the upside, not fewer. Until that stops, we want to keep looking for stocks to buy.
[Read more…]

All Star Interviews Season 3, Episode 12: Robert Sluymer, Managing Director at Fundstrat Global Advisors

November 1, 2019 by JC

Robert Sluymer has been a Technical Analyst for close to 3 decades. I really enjoy his intermarket, global macro perspective and the way he brings it all together in a similar way to what we do at our shop. It was hard for me to really disagree with anything Rob said during this podcast episode. It seems to me like him and I are on the same page on many levels. I didn’t make it easy on him, but he certainly brought the goods. I really enjoyed this episode from someone who brings 27 years of institutional experience at RBC and is now at an independent shop at Fundstrat. We discussed Bitcoin, the S&P500, Sector Rotation, Bonds and Precious Metals. This was a good one! Give it a listen [Read more…]