From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
Searching for trending markets?
Look no further than US treasury bonds!
Bonds across the curve are skidding to fresh contract lows as interest rates have a one-track mind…
Buy Energy as the Dollar, Rates Rise
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
Markets fluctuate to a relentless beat driven by fear, greed, and an incessant newsfeed.
Sometimes, they trend.
But, more often than not, they churn sideways.
Unsurprisingly, “sideways” best describes most markets today.
The S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have gone nowhere in three months.
Regardless, one uptrend remains intact…
Chinese Bonds Suggest Trouble Ahead
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
Yields are rising worldwide.
US treasuries continue to fall after a brief pullback in price.
Now, Chinese government bonds are pressing toward fresh lows.
Sovereign debt epitomizes downside risk. And Chinese bonds are on the cusp of a significant breakdown – a breakdown that spells more trouble for global bond investors.
Bonds Pull Back
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
US Treasuries have stopped falling – for the moment.
But it’s a mixed bag.
Short setups for long-duration bonds remain in play despite pullbacks underway, while the shorter end of the curve never managed to break down.
It’s messy.
So, let’s run through the US Treasury futures for an updated read on the bond market.
Two-Year US Treasury Note Flashes “Sell”
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
I bought bonds last December and again in March.
I thought it was time to bring these beaten-down assets back into the fold as US Treasuries printed fresh six-month highs.
But I was wrong.
Fast-forward to today, and the downtrend for bonds remains intact.
And those false breakouts last spring have led to fresh breakdowns as we head into the fall.
The 10- and 30-year futures are flashing sell signals as they undercut their respective March pivot lows.
Now, the shorter end of the curve is doing the same.
The Bond Market Remains Stress-Free
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
Credit spreads are the canaries in the financial market coal mine.
They’ll peep at the first sign markets face serious risks.
With stocks entering a corrective phase, it makes sense to seek information from the biggest exchange in the world.
The bond market.
Yields: Listen to the Charts, Not the Gossip
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
Are investors really buying bonds, betting on a squeeze higher?
Perhaps it’s just my Twitter feed. (Or are we calling it “X” now?)
I’m perplexed by the growing chatter around picking the bottom in bonds.
Warning: Picking bottoms is never a good look.
It’s unbecoming, especially when there are zero signs of a reversal. (The same applies to tops.)
I understand the Nasdaq 100 had its best first half – like, ever.
But what does that have to do with yield charts?
Will Rising Rates Lead to a Stock Market Bloodbath?
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
Rates are on the move again.
The US 30-year Treasury yield $TYX cleared numerous hurdles this week.
It broke above a shelf of former highs, climbing to its highest level year-to-date. And, perhaps more importantly, it reclaimed its former 2014 high.
Add a potential failed breakdown in the US dollar index $DXY, and it’s starting to feel a lot like 2022.
But should we expect another bloodbath?
- 1
- 2
- 3
- …
- 14
- Next Page »
