Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
Bonds are taking a breather as stocks recover.
Bond market volatility is cooling off as the banking collapses and the March Fed meeting fade from the front page.
And it appears the volatility has left big unresolved bases in US Treasuries in its wake…
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
The Federal Reserve handed down a 25-basis-point rate increase on Wednesday.
And Fed Chair Jerome Powell implied an impending pause in the hiking cycle.
You know what this means…
It’s time to buy the four “Bs” – Bonds, Bitcoin, Big-Tech, and Bullion.
JC and Strazza talked about it on Pardon the Price Action earlier this week.
Today, I’ll highlight bonds with a couple key levels to trade against as we add these assets to our portfolios.
From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
Markets have been on the ropes since late last week when a Silicon Valley Bank press release sparked a run on regional banks.
As Wall Street scrambles to reprice the financial sector — for what, up until last week, were unforeseen risks — selling pressure and panic is spreading to Europe and other parts of the world.
Regulators are taking action. And the Fed is taking notice as expectations for future rate hikes plummet.
While Bitcoin and tech stocks have performed exceptionally well through the volatility, cyclical stocks and commodities have been hit hard, with energy and the CRB Index breaking to new lows this week.
What are we to make of all this? Should we be concerned?
Is the regional banking crisis a contained event, or is it about to send reverberations through the broader market and economy?
Whenever we have questions like these, the first place we want to look is the bond market.
Any signs of stress tend to show up there first.
by Ian Culley
It’s the weekly bond edition of What the FICC?
The Silicon Valley Bank $SIVB collapse dominates the week’s headlines.
While risks appear isolated for now, unlike in 2008, the next chart reveals a storm brewing beneath the surface…
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
US bank stocks big and small took a beating Thursday, with the Bank ETF $KBE posting its largest single-day decline since 2020.
The steep sell-off came on the heels of Silicon Valley Bank’s $SIVB Wednesday announcement of a $1.8B loss, mainly due to accepting unrealized losses in US Treasuries.
Based on SIVB’s acute exposure to the tech industry, you can argue larger banks with more diversified portfolios and clients don’t carry the same risk. And they don’t.
Regardless, the next chart reveals a storm brewing beneath the surface…
by Ian Culley
It’s the weekly bond edition of What the FICC?
Developed European benchmark interest rates are posting fresh highs. Those potential failed breakouts back in early January have quickly turned into nothing more than false or premature moves.
And while US yields continue to climb, their recent rise pales compared to their European counterparts.
Check it out!
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley
Markets churn sideways, plagued with indecision. But one thing is certain…
The global rising rate environment remains intact.
Developed European benchmark interest rates are posting fresh highs. Those potential failed breakouts back in early January have quickly turned into nothing more than false or premature moves.
And while US yields continue to climb, their recent rise pales compared to their European counterparts.
What does that imply for domestic rates in the coming weeks and months?
by Ian Culley
It’s the weekly bond edition of What the FICC?
The narrative is quickly shifting back to tighter monetary policy following last week’s higher-than-anticipated CPI and strong economic data.
With these newfound recessionary fears circulating, I want to share a chart I like to avoid… The 2s10s treasury spread.
