Copper just made history.

The price closed June with its highest monthly close ever.

We have the data:

Copper futures are printing fresh all-time highs after resolving a prolonged accumulation pattern.

And when copper moves, it isn’t just about metals—it’s about yields, growth, and what comes next.

Next up is a chart of the Copper/Gold ratio versus the 10-year yield. 

Forget the recent noise, for decades, long-term yields have followed the Copper/Gold ratio. 

When Dr. Copper outperforms, yields rise. 

Every time.

Why? Because copper is associated with construction, production, and demand. 

It’s the heartbeat of the real global economy. 

Gold is fear. Copper is action.

When Copper leads, the market’s not bracing for collapse. Instead, it’s pricing in growth.

This is one of the biggest divergences we've ever seen:

In recent years, the Copper/Gold ratio and the 10Y yield have carved out one of the largest divergences in history.

And now we're seeing early signals that the ratio is going to reverse higher...

Every major commodity boom of the last 25 years has followed the same blueprint:

🔺 CRB Index starts curling higher
🔺 Yield curve inverts… then steepens
🔺 And commodities don’t just rally—they detonate.

Look at the chart. 

2001 → Inversion → Steepening → Oil +300%
2006 → Same setup → Same outcome
2020 → Rinse and repeat

And now?

It’s happening again.

The CRB is coiling just beneath multi-year resistance. The kind of tight, coiled spring that doesn’t let go gently. Momentum is building. The yield curve—the most reliable forward indicator we’ve got—is turning up from historic depths.

This isn’t some lagging inflation print. This isn’t a Fed narrative. This is price. And price is truth.

This is a setup that only comes around a few times in a generation. Most investors sleep through it. They wait for confirmation. They miss it.

But not you.

Hemingway once said bankruptcy happens two ways: gradually, then suddenly. Commodity cycles are the same. They creep. They churn. Then they rip.

...

Yes, the U.S. had a rough 20-year auction. Yields on the 30-year almost retested their October highs, touching 5.15%. But that’s not the real story.

The real bond crisis is in Japan.

This week, Japan saw its worst 20-year bond auction since 1987. Long-end JGBs—30s and 40s—are ripping to all-time highs. Not because of inflation or growth. Because no one’s buying.

Life insurers, once the backbone of demand, are out. Solvency regulations crushed their appetite. Reinsurers are selling. The market is flooded with supply, and demand is structurally broken.

Now add fiscal stress, political risk, and an election promising tax cuts—and the bond vigilantes are wide awake.

This isn’t a local issue. Goldman says Japan’s long-end move added 80 bps of pressure to global yields. What’s happening in the U.S. isn’t just about the Fed. It’s about Japan breaking.

When the most conservative central bank starts losing control, that’s not background noise. That’s the alarm bell.

Bond dysfunction doesn’t just mean volatility.

It means inflation.

Because when buyers disappear… you print.
And when you print into a supply-constrained world…...

Everything in markets is connected. Not in theory—in function.

Think of the market like a human body. Your brain is at the center—processing data, storing memories, sending signals. But none of that matters unless the message reaches your limbs. That’s what nerves are for. They carry the signal. They make the body move.

Without that connection, you become rigid. Movement slows. Response times lag. Eventually, the whole system breaks down.

Markets work the same way and the bond market is the brain.

It holds the signal. It processes information about liquidity, risk, and expectations. The shape of the yield curve can tell you whether credit is expanding or contracting. Whether investors are optimistic or defensive. Whether the economy is warming up—or starting to overheat.

The bond market doesn’t just exist alongside stocks and commodities. It speaks to them. It sets the tone. It sends the signal.

If there’s enough liquidity, risk assets rally. Stocks rise and credit flows.

That’s a healthy system.

Too much liquidity?

The jobs report came in just strong enough to keep the Fed on the sidelines.

Since last month, the U.S. economy added 177,000 new jobs to Nonfarm Payrolls. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, and wages showed minimal growth. 

Together, that combination gave the bond market a clear signal: the economy is stable enough for the Fed to stay patient, and traders adjusted their rate cut expectations accordingly.

And the market reacted quickly. Yields on short-term bonds jumped, with the 2-year leading the move higher. The reason was simple: traders no longer expect the Fed to cut rates in June. Now, they’re betting on July.

Goldman and Barclays just said the quiet part out loud: the Fed doesn’t need to move yet.

So bond prices fell, especially on the short end of the curve. Long bonds declined too, but not as much. That’s a textbook bear flattener: when short-term rates rise faster than long-term ones.

...

The Fed doesn’t set the tone. It reacts to it.
 Always has. Always will.

This week, Waller gave the usual hint:
 "A serious drop in the job market could prompt more cuts, sooner."

Translation? The Fed knows it's behind. The bond market figured it out months ago.

The real story is written in the chart.
 The 2 Year Treasury Yield is the market’s forward looking Fed whisperer.
 Every cycle, the 2 year tops first. Every cycle, the Effective Federal Funds Rate follows like a lost puppy.

• When the 2 year peaks and rolls, the Fed has no choice but to cut.
• Markets aren’t asking politely for cuts — they’re already forcing them.

Right now, the  2 year is falling hard. That isn't a forecast.
 It’s the bond market screaming: "You're done here."

It’s not about what Powell...

One of the most reliable signals of market stress isn’t in the headlines—it’s in swap spreads.

Swap spreads measure the difference between what banks pay to swap interest rates (SOFR) and what the U.S. government pays to borrow (Treasuries). When that spread collapses, like it just did, something’s breaking.

• In 2008, swap spreads collapsed before Lehman.
• In March 2020, they broke again when the Treasury market froze.

Both times, the Fed stepped in.

This week, the 30-year swap spread hit a record low last week. Translation? Dealers are under pressure. Liquidity is vanishing.

Chart from Kevin Muir from The Macro Tourist

Here’s the real story:

Pension funds use swaps to hedge rates while keeping cash free for private investments. Banks hedge those swaps by buying Treasuries—but capital requirements limit how...

Why? Because tariffs create immediate uncertainty. They slow growth, tighten financial conditions, and drive a flight to safety — all of which are bond bullish in the short term. We’ve seen this playbook before: geopolitical tension or trade stress leads to a bid for duration.

The chart’s not there yet — but it’s starting to shape up. Bonds still have work to do before we can talk new 52-week highs. For $TLT, that means clearing this massive base and getting above 100.40 with some momentum behind it. That’s the line in the sand. Get through that, and the squeeze could start to build.

But here’s the catch — the long-term impact is different.

Tariffs raise input costs. They squeeze supply chains. And they don’t reduce demand — they just make things more expensive. Over time, that feeds into inflation. So while bonds may catch a near-term bid on fears of economic slowdown, the structural risk is higher inflation down the road.

It’s the classic setup: short-term deflationary shock, long-term inflationary shift.

So yes — bonds could break out. But if this pressure...

If global growth is going to pick up, you’ll likely see it first in the copper to gold ratio. 

Historically, it moves in lockstep with the 10 year yield — and right now, there’s a glaring gap. If that gap closes, copper’s about to get loud.

And it’s already whispering.

Copper just hit a 52 week high.

International stocks are starting to hum.

Momentum always shows up quietly before it slams the door.

Here’s the kicker: global growth isn’t being driven by the usual suspects. It’s not the U.S. or Europe. It’s the rest of the world — emerging market and developing economies are growing at 4.2%, more than double the 1.8% of advanced economies. 

The world is moving at 3.2%, and the heavy lifting is coming from places most investors still ignore.

That matters. Because copper doesn’t just track growth — it sniffs it out early. And right now, it smells something big.

(TLDR) Why we think copper moves higher from here:

• Copper just broke out to a new 52 week high
• International equities are gaining momentum alongside it
• The...

Bonds are telling the story of this market, and if you’re not listening you’re already behind! 

Growth, inflation, liquidity – it’s all written in the bond market’s moves, making bonds the most critical tool for any trader. 

Period. 

The 2 year US Treasury yield exploded higher the moment the Fed started cutting rates – a massive tell that expectations shifted on a dime, as the chart clearly shows. 

Now that same yield has flipped direction and is plunging lower. You know what that means: liquidity could start flooding the system once again.

When liquidity increases, money doesn’t sit still – it moves fast. 

We’re watching capital rip through the market, rotating in to international stocks like it’s got something to prove. 

The Fed might think they’re steering the ship with their rate tweaks, but the bond market says otherwise. 

It’s the bond market that leads the way – always has, always will.

So here’s the million dollar question: will we...

Look, I get it—this topic comes up again and again, and it can be a bit of a head scratcher.

I keep saying it: inflation is sticky, and the dollar is rolling over.

Yet people ask, "How does that work with a 75% rolling correlation between the dollar and yields recently?"

And that’s a valid question.

Check out this chart—it’s a visual reminder that correlations aren’t set in stone. There are times when the numbers move in harmony and other moments when the link just falls apart.
 

Markets evolve, and so do these relationships.

Here’s the honest truth: correlations are fickle by nature. They can look tight one minute and then unravel the next.

Relying on a strong historical link is like betting on a coin toss coming up heads every time—it’s risky and can easily lead you astray.

If you want to understand where commodity prices are headed, look at the yield curve.

Every major commodity bull market has been preceded by a steepening yield curve—every single one.

📈 When the yield curve bottoms and starts steepening, commodities follow.
 

Look at the last cycle:

• The commodity index bottomed when the yield curve hit its lowest point.
• When the yield curve flipped positive for the first time since 2022, commodities started trending higher.

It’s not magic—it’s liquidity and capital flows. When short-term rates fall relative to long-term rates, the market starts pricing in higher growth and inflation expectations, and commodities are the first to respond.

This is exactly why we’re positioned the way we are. Commodities don’t move in isolation—...