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Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets

[Podcast] A Canadian Perspective w/ CIBC Portfolio Manager David Cox

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In a market environment where Financials and Natural Resources have become leadership groups, how do we not have a conversation about Canada? Taking that one step further, we need to talk about how any investor, whether living in Canada or not, can take advantage of a potential structural swing in the trend for Canadian Equities.

David Cox is someone who I’ve discussed markets with for many years. We usually hook up every Spring in New York City at the annual CMT Symposium. It’s only fair that I let the rest of the world eavesdrop on our chats. He’s a bright guy with good perspective on all things stocks, interest rates, forex markets and even Bitcoin.

David is a Portfolio Managers at CIBC and is a true trend follower. He tells it like it is. I really enjoy that about him. I was looking forward to having this conversation, and he exceeded all expectations. David really brings it in this episode!!

I hope you enjoy. And make sure to give him a follow on Twitter @DavidCoxWG

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RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (03-23-2021)

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From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

We continue to reiterate the same themes and pillars that support our bullish macro thesis. This would include an abundance of evidence pointing to risk appetite, rising developed market yields, strength from commodities, and of course the ongoing rotation toward cyclicals, value, and international stocks, among others…

Just about anywhere we look, we’re seeing investors gravitate further and further out on the risk spectrum.

At the same time, some of the former market leaders have retreated since February and are currently hovering near key levels. Similarly, even the markets’ more recent leaders have shown signs of weakness the past few weeks as some have violated critical tactical levels while others are consolidating at logical levels of resistance.

We’re seeing this both in the US and abroad… and not just in Equity Markets, but also Credit and Commodities. Even many of the risk-on FX pairs we watch have rallied back to key former highs, a very natural area to see sellers step in.

In this week’s report, we highlight some of the most important charts and corresponding levels we’re currently focused on. As long as our risk levels remain intact, so does our “bullish risk-assets” thesis. On the other hand, if we start to see more and more of these key levels give out, we’ll have to re-evaluate things.

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RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (03-16-2021)

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From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

The market continues to fire on all cylinders right now. Last week’s gains were nothing but a continuation of the same resiliency and momentum we’ve come to expect from risk assets over the last year.

As for what’s providing buying opportunities over the next few months and quarters, it is still strongly centered around cyclical areas pertaining to Energy, Financials, International Markets such as Canada, and Commodities, among many other areas we’ve been hitting on.

Last week’s price action continues to strengthen our view that we’ve reallocated into all the right areas. As such, our best course of action is to continue looking for the best risk vs reward opportunities in these leading groups.

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The Deal With Debt Markets

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From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Last week’s mystery chart was a popular one, so we inverted it to make things a bit more challenging. Someone still guessed it… Nice work.

It was the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF $IEF. The issue with inverting Bond charts is that when you do they look identical to yields. In the case of IEF, we’re basically dealing with the US 10-Year Yield $TNX.

Rising rates has been one of the main themes early this year as developed market yields have accelerated higher and hit the pockets of bond investors all over the world.

In this post, we’ll check in on some of the most important and most telling credit instruments on both absolute and relative terms in order to piece together the message the bond market is sending investors.

Read our post from last month for our take on what cross-asset ratios outside of the Bond Market are indicating. Many of these trends have confirmed their reversals and accelerated to the upside over the past month as investors continue to price in higher rates in the future.

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RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (03-09-2021)

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From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

Rotation into value is dominating the narrative right now as money continues to pour out of the former leaders and into long-term secular laggards like Financials and Energy.

In line with this trend, we continue to focus less on US Large-Caps and Growth, and instead look for opportunities in SMIDs, Cyclicals, and International stocks.

Overall, the global equity market remains healthy, supported by strong breadth and rotation. Meanwhile, defensive assets like Gold and Bonds continue to underperform.

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Banking On This Group Of Global Stocks

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From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts

Over the last few months, there’s been a distinct rotation into Financials and other cyclical areas across equity markets not just in the US, but across the globe.

This topic is nothing new around here as it’s been a big theme for us recently. Consider some of our calls from this month:

I think you get it. We’re quite bullish on risk assets at the moment.

Long story short, the expansion in participation from cyclical stocks and commodities has provided us with a swath of new opportunities… and we’ve been jumping at them.

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[Podcast] Let’s Talk About Bonds, Baby! w/ Larry McDonald

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Whenever I want to talk about bonds, I always know just who to call. Larry McDonald is a former bond trader at Lehman Brothers and author of the book, Colossal Failure of Common Sense. I highly encourage you to give it a read, especially if you’re looking for some perspective on what really happened back in 2007-2008.

It’s no coincidence that I reached out to him to come on the podcast. Larry and I had a very timely conversation in February of last year. So with the bond market recently losing 5-6 Trillion dollars in such a short period of time, who better to talk to than by favorite bond trader.

This was fun. We talked about the current move in rates and how that’s impacting stocks and bond markets around the world. If you’re looking for color on Credit Spreads and Yield curves, this is the episode for you.

What’s better than a good conversation about bonds?  [Read more…]

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