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All Star Charts

Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets

New Lows For Yields Means Messier For Longer

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From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge

It’s a tale of two markets. 

The weight of the evidence remains mixed across asset classes. We also continue to see more and more risk assets struggle at overhead supply. This is particularly true for equity and commodity markets.

From an intermarket perspective, most risk appetite ratios and risk-on relative trends are either moving lower or are rangebound.

Simply put, there’s little in terms of directional edge for investors. The data remains split right down the middle — and there are sound arguments for both the bull and bear case.

Although the information we’re getting from the Bond Market is much more consistent these days. And what we’re seeing is suggesting lower yields for longer.

Let’s take a look… 

[Read more…]

[Premium] Q3 2021 Playbook

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This is our ASC Research Q3 2021 Playbook.

With the current market environment giving us many mixed messages, what better time to dive in and see what’s happening underneath the surface?

  • Stocks (International & U.S.)
  • U.S. Sectors & Industries
  • Market Breadth & Sentiment
  • Commodities
  • Currencies
  • Intermarket Analysis
  • Crypto Currencies
  • New Trade Ideas
  • Overall Strategy

[Read more…]

RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (06-28-2021)

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From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

Welcome to our latest RPP Report, where we publish return tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

We consider this our weekly state of the union address as we break down and reiterate both our tactical and structural outlook on various asset classes and discuss the most important themes and developments currently playing out in markets all around the world.

We’ve been pretty obnoxious about our position that markets are a total mess these days. But it is what it is, and we can only play the hand we’re dealt. 

You can try picking profits out of a trendless environment but at the end of the day, most investors are better off on the sidelines. Imposing one’s will upon the market is rarely a winning strategy. We’d rather trade what’s in front of us. 

We’ve covered the best evidence from both the bulls and bears camp of late, and played devil’s advocate with the data we have. We continue to track and point out the most important upside and downside resolutions across global markets. And we keep pounding the table on the theme that so many significant risk assets are currently trading at critical resistance levels. 

[Read more…]

RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (06-16-2021)

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From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

Welcome to our latest RPP Report, where we publish return tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

We consider this our weekly state of the union address as we break down and reiterate both our tactical and structural outlook on various asset classes and discuss the most important themes and developments currently playing out in markets all around the world.

And at present, markets are a total mess and full of mixed messages as most major stock market indexes continue to churn sideways in consolidation patterns, while many risk-on commodities are in corrective phases.

While the weight of the evidence still remains in the bullish camp, bears seem to add to their list of talking points with every passing week. We believe the highest probability outcome over the coming weeks to months is for risk assets to remain in a mixed and messy environment. Once we begin to see evidence that indicates the current “chop fest” is nearing an end, which could simply come in the form of a reduction in the number of bearish data points, we think this party resumes in the direction of the primary trend… which remains aggressively higher in most risk assets.

But as the evidence becomes increasingly mixed, so does the way we want to approach the market and position ourselves to profit from the present environment. While we’re still buying plenty of stocks exhibiting leadership all around the globe… for the first time in over a year, we’re focused more on shorting the losers.

Check out some of our recent shorts on our trade ideas page.

Last week, we discussed how a lot of the most recent evidence has tilted back in favor of the bulls with a number of upside resolutions, particularly in international equity indexes.

Well, what a difference a week can make. This past week, we saw the opposite as some major risk assets are now failing at key levels.

Again, this speaks to the mixed messages the market is sending now that these holding patterns are beginning to resolve. They’re resolving in both bullish and bearish directions… at least for now.

In today’s post, we’ll offer the opposing view from last week. We will also highlight some key charts that are experiencing bearish resolutions.

[Read more…]

RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (06-09-2021)

by

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

Welcome to our latest RPP Report, where we publish return tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

We consider this our weekly state of the union address as we break down and reiterate both our tactical and structural outlook on various asset classes and discuss the most important themes and developments currently playing out in markets all around the world.

While the weight of the evidence still remains in the bullish camp, bears seem to add to their list of talking points with every passing week of late. We believe the highest probability outcome over the coming weeks to months is for risk assets to remain in a mixed and messy environment. Once we begin to see evidence that indicates the current “chop fest” is nearing an end – which could simply come in the form of a reduction in the number of bearish data points, we think this party resumes in the direction of the primary trend… which remains aggressively higher in most risk assets.

But as the evidence becomes increasingly mixed, so does the way we want to approach the market and position ourselves to profit from the present environment. While we’re still buying plenty of stocks exhibiting leadership all around the globe… for the first time in over a year, we’re focused more on shorting the losers.

The latest incoming evidence has been overwhelmingly bearish and has continued to reinforce our cautionary outlook. Although, we have reason to believe this could finally be changing as risk assets made some real progress since our last RPP Report.

We still need to see some follow-through and confirmation of these developments, but over the past two weeks, we’ve seen more bullish data points than we have in months.

The ever-growing list of stocks and other risk assets consolidating at resistance has been a main theme we’ve hit on relentlessly of late. This had caused us to turn more and more cautious in recent months.

Well, much of the bullish information we’re seeing is from many of these holding patterns resolving higher from key levels of interest.

[Read more…]

Do These Divergences Matter?

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For me, it’s not just about one indicator or one chart. It’s a weight of the evidence game. Since March, the bet has been Messy For Longer. We’ve expected a choppy environment. That’s what the weight-of-the-evidence and history suggested. But now what? Are these consolidations going to resolve lower? Or Higher? Or just stay messy for even longer? That’s what makes this all so great. I don’t know. And neither do you. No one does. It’s a beautiful thing. So as I weigh the evidence to decide rollover or breakout, I come to a series of divergences that put this stock market in quite the predicament. With S&Ps and major indexes hovering near all-time highs, we’re just not seeing it from the components themselves. Here’s the Russell3000, for instance, seeing fewer and fewer new highs: [Read more…]

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