Intermarktet Analysis Archives

Long Wicks = Pain For Short Sellers?

January 26, 2022 by JC

To some investors, they might look at the market and say, “Hey on Monday the market was up a little, and today is was down a little. NBD”.

And they won’t be wrong.

In fact, Charlie Dow always preached that closing prices were the most important prices. And that was 130+ years ago.

But for those of us who understand the current circumstances. For those of us who do watch the market internals and intraday action, we wouldn’t come to that sort of simple conclusion that easily.

In fact, we’d probably disagree with the, Up a little Monday and Down a little Tuesday idea.

There’s much more to it than that.

Let’s remember what we’ve seen over the past year. In 2 weeks we’ll have the 1yr anniversary of the top in the stock market, or “market of stocks”, if you will.

This is when the New Highs list peaked. This is when the Nasdaq A-D line peaked. IPO Index, Biotech, Chinese Internet, Cathy Wood stocks and even the SPACs. They all topped in February and have been falling very hard ever since:

Stock market bulls want to see these stocks stop falling.

But the bond market and commodities might already be pointing to that.

If things were so bad, then why are rates holding in just fine?

Why is Crude Oil holding in just fine?

Feels like rotation, not distribution, at least as far as the broader markets are concerned.

New 52-week highs today for Halliburton.

In this tape!

Pay attention. There are winners out there.

If they tell you that the world revolves around US growth stocks, you want to run away from those people as soon as possible.

That’s not how the world works. It might be how their world works, but that’s their problem. Not mine or yours.

Every cycle is different.

Don’t let people stuck in prior cycles drag you down.

Move on.

There are big winners out there. There’s relative strength. You just have to look.

[Premium] Q4 Playbook

January 25, 2022 by Rashmi Bhatnagar

As we progress into Q4 of Fiscal Year 2021-2022, this playbook outlines our thoughts on every asset class and our plan to profit.

This playbook will cover our macro view, touching on Equities, Commodities, Currencies, and Rates, as well as outline our views on the major nifty indices and the sector/thematic indices.

We also cover individual stocks we want to be buying to take advantage of the themes discussed in the playbook.

[Read more…]

You Are Not Alone

January 23, 2022 by JC

I get to talk to traders and investors of all shapes and sizes every day of my life. This is something I like to do for fun, and it’s also a great way to learn. But remember, I do this for a living. So not a day goes by where I’m not talking to market participants.

This has gone on for decades now. Everyone from the largest banks and hedge funds on the planet to recent grads first learning how to trade.

I have a lot of conversations with these investors. And one common theme I’ve heard over the past few months is just how difficult of an environment this currently is.

A lot of traders are getting chopped up in this mess of a market. And it’s not anything new, it’s been messy for quite some time.

So you’re not alone in this.

Please don’t think you are. [Read more…]

What Do Stock Market Bulls Have Left?

January 22, 2022 by JC

Bonds & Commodities. That’s what the stock market bulls still have left.

But why do Futures matter to stock traders and investors?

Because the bond market and commodities market combined are waaaaay bigger than the stock market.

It starts with the information we’re getting from futures markets, and then it trickles down to everything else from there.

With the stock market losing key support in the Nasdaq, S&P500, Small-caps, Transports and Bitcoin, what’s left?

I think these 2 are what the bulls have left…. [Read more…]

[Video] Pardon The Price Action w/ JC Parets & Steve Strazza | The Strongest O&G Stocks

January 18, 2022 by JC

On this episode of Pardon The Price Action, we’re talking about the implications of rising interest rates. This is no longer an environment where Growth stocks outperform. It’s actually the exact opposite.

We’re also seeing these signs from other countries around the world with much more exposure to the Value sectors like Energy, Materials, Industrials and Financials.

US Investors have a lot more exposure to Technology and Growth than almost every other country in the world.

I think Latin America is worth watching, China and many other emerging markets.

We believe this time IS different!

Check out the full video:

[Read more…]

Do You Own Stocks In The Right Country?

January 17, 2022 by JC

What if the outperformance we’ve seen from the United States stock market for so long is behind us?

Is your portfolio prepared for an environment where US stocks underperform the rest of the world?

What about your peers?

Do you think Financial Advisors across the country have positioned their clients to take advantage of outsized returns outside the United States?

I talk to a lot of people.

And my answer is no. A big fat obnoxious NO.

I don’t think they’re ready at all. And the pain could last a while.

By the time your average financial advisor gets off the golf course and notices how poorly positioned their clients are, it’s usually much later in the cycle. [Read more…]