For someone who uses Dow Theory every single day, it’s not something that I write about much. I may indirectly reference certain tenets all the time, but rarely do I write specifically about the 130 year old Dow Theory. I think I pretty much laid it all out earlier this year in my post: 5 Things Every Investor Should Know About Dow Theory. The simple minded choose to stick to the Dow Jones Transportation Average and Dow Jones Industrial Average either confirming each other or diverging from one another. And while this may in fact be a one of Charles Dow’s tenets (although they were Railroads back then, not the Transports we have today), it does not even make it into my top 5 most important tenets. [Read more…]
[Chart Of The Week] Economically Sensitive Assets Break out In Unison
Last week I shared with you guys a “Mystery Chart” without any labels on it. The point of this exercise is to eliminate any biases and focus only on facts. The only truth in the market that we can count on is price. Sell side analysts are going extinct because they offer little value, the media is often either wrong or lying to you, the same can be said about C-level executives, and the list goes on and on. None of these people are reliable. This is why the only thing we can count on is price. It’s just math. So we prefer to focus on that and ignore the rest of the noise.
Today we’re looking at a rare development in economically sensitive assets that I think have much broader implications for stocks and commodities moving forward: [Read more…]
[Premium] Weekly Open Letter About The Current Market Environment
In this week’s members-only letter we discuss the following topics:
- What Is The Bullish Case For U.S. Stocks
- Why I Am Still Leaning Towards The Bearish Side For Stocks
- My Favorite Short In U.S. Stocks
- Why We Want To Be Long Volatility
- What The Relative Strength In U.S. Banks Means To Me?
- Why Commodities Have Been The Best Place In The World
- What If The U.S. Dollar Rallies?
- What Do We Make Of The Historic Extreme Bullish Sentiment In Bonds?
[Chart Of The Week] This Important U.S. Stock Index Is Breaking Out
We’ve just witnessed one of the most epic rallies in the stock market that we’ve seen in a long time. Remember, this has been dominated by global indexes, particularly Emerging Markets, not U.S. Stocks. We could not be happier to see this rally progress so well as we’ve been pounding the table to be long since late January. By mid-February, the U.S. and other developed markets put in their bottoms and started to play catch up to the rest of the world. But the underperformance of the U.S. has continued anyway.
Today’s Chart Of The Week represents what could potentially be the start of a major structural improvement for U.S. Stocks: [Read more…]
[Premium] Weekly Open Letter About The Current Market Environment
In this week’s members-only letter we discuss the following topics:
- What Do We Do With The U.S. Indexes Now? S&P500, DJIA, etc
- The Best Trade In Precious Metals: Gold & Silver
- About That Squeeze Higher in Chinese Stocks
- My Favorite Energy Trade Today
- What Are We Going To Do About This Messy Bond Market?
- The Best Tech Stocks: Apple, Microsoft, Google or Facebook?
- What Does The Weight-Of-The-Evidence Suggest About Risk-Appetite?
[Premium] Everything You Need To Know About The US Stock Indexes: S&P500, DJIA, Nasdaq100, Russell2000, Mid-cap400
We’ve been pretty neutral the majority of the U.S. Stock Market indexes over the past couple of weeks since they first starting hitting our upside targets. Some of them, like the Nasdaq100 and Mid-cap400 had yet to reach out upside objectives, but we are approaching those now. I will argue, though, that the developments we’ve seen are constructive, both in price behavior and in the breadth itself.
Here is what I think we need to keep in mind with each of the major Indexes. We’re using only bar charts today in order to put extra emphasis on price for this particular exercise: [Read more…]
[Premium] What Intermarket Analysis Is Suggesting About The Current Market Environment
Intermarket Day is one of my favorite days. Yes I’m a huge nerd. Deal with it!
This is when I go through many markets relative to each other. These markets include individual U.S. Sectors compared with the overall U.S. Stock market. We also look at other assets against each other like Bonds, Commodities and Currencies. We price Gold in other currencies, and change around denominators for both trade idea generation and also for informational purposes.
Here are some of the things that stood out from this week’s homework:
[Premium] A Summary Of All The U.S. Stock Market Indexes
From the S&P500 to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and down to the Russell2000 and Mid-cap 400, every week I go index by index looking for clues in order to take a weight-of-the-evidence approach towards the U.S. equities market. I have updated all of the indexes in the Chartbook on both weekly and daily timeframes.
The Indexes we discuss today are:
- S&P500
- Dow Jones Industrial Average
- Dow Jones Transportation Average
- Dow Jones Utility Average
- Nasdaq100 Index
- Mid-cap400 Index
- Russell2000 Small-cap Index
- Russell Micro-cap Index
- U.S. Treasury Bond Fund $TLT
- U.S. Treasury 10-year Yield
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