This is the video recording of the May 2021 Conference Call.
[PLUS] Weekly Momentum Report & Takeaways
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
Check out this week’s Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let’s jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week’s report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
Commodities Weekly: Is Gold Ready to Shine Again?
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Gold has been one of the last places we have wanted to put our money over the past eight months, second only to Bonds.
Other areas of the commodities space, like Base Metals, Energy, and Ags, along with risk assets in general have experienced an explosive rally. While Precious Metals have gone nowhere. But are we starting to see signs that this could be changing?
Last week we pointed out that Lumber had reached our target and could be due for a pullback. And we’re seeing that play out.
The previous week we noted that other procyclical commodities within the Base Metals group were also reaching our targets and testing areas of potential resistance. And like Lumber and so many other risk-assets, they remain trapped below key levels of overhead supply.
So while much of these former leaders appear to be entering corrective periods, or sideways trends, we’re looking to put our money to work in areas that are trending… And one of those places within the commodities complex that has our attention is Gold and its shiny peers.
When we consider the recent outperformance from defensive areas within other asset classes, it would certainly make sense to see precious metals take the driver’s seat here.
In today’s post, we’re going to examine the following question: After a year of consolidation, is it finally time for Gold to shine? [Read more…]
RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (05-17-2021)
From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza
Welcome to our latest RPP Report, where we publish return tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
You can consider this our weekly state of the union address as we break down and reiterate both our tactical and structural outlook on various asset classes as well as discuss the most important themes and developments taking place in markets all around the world.
While the weight of the evidence remains in the bull’s favor, we continue to see more data arrive that suggests the environment could be shifting toward one that is less conducive to risk assets, at least over shorter timeframes.
In fact, we’d argue that bears have more talking points today than they’ve had at any time over the trailing year. With each passing week, data continues to suggest a more cautionary approach is appropriate.
Shorter-term, the market looks increasingly messy. Defensive assets have stabilized at logical levels of support and are beginning to outperform. Meanwhile, a growing number of stock market indexes and other risk assets are achieving our upside objectives and/or running into critical areas of overhead supply.
Additionally, we’re seeing a growing list of red flags in our intermarket and cross-asset ratios, many of which are diverging from the broader averages.
As far as breadth and internals are concerned, the data remains bifurcated. Growth areas that have been under pressure are showing cracks beneath the surface. At the same time, value and cyclical areas of the market just printed fresh bullish initiation readings last week.
[PLUS] Weekly Momentum Report & Takeaways
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
Check out this week’s Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. We can then put these near-term developments into the context of the big picture and glean insights into the structural trends at play.
Let’s jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week’s report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post. [Read more…]
Cash & Champagne
What do you want from me?
Do you want me to tell you that it’s just all rainbows and butterflies?
Is that why you come here?
Or is it because you know I don’t give a shit, and I’m just going to give it to you straight every time?
So here’s the deal.
We had a heck of a run. That was one of the best 1-year returns of all time.
What more do you want?
Give it a rest. Let Year 2 play out and see if it’s like all those others. So far it’s exactly like them.
We’ve seen a ton of relative strength out of the Value areas of the market: Financials, Natural Resources, Industrials…
Those are the areas where we’ve wanted to be as money has rotated out of Growth.
But now our upside objectives are getting hit all over the place. We laid all that out 2 weeks ago in great detail.
And now the Dow Jones Transportation Average was down this week, for the first time since January. The consecutive streak officially ends at 14 weeks of gains. [Read more…]
Commodities Weekly: Time for a Pullback in Lumber?
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Lumber futures have been on an absolute tear since last spring. The vertical but volatile price action off last year’s lows is something for the history books.
After trading down to 250 in late March of 2020, Lumber has since shot back above 1,600, where it trades today. It’s no wonder social media is full of people flaunting their wealth with stacks of timber.
But we have to ask… is it time for a pullback? Is this rally overdone here?
Let’s take a deeper look and discuss why we believe the logical move for Lumber over the short term is sideways… or even lower.
[Podcast] Fixed Income, Commodities & Currencies | My Conversation w/ Paul Ciana, CMT Bank of America Merrill Lynch
This is a fun one. I got to sit down with Paul Ciana to talk about all things Fixed Income, Commodities and Currencies. Paul is now the Chief Global FICC Technical Strategist and Director of Research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. But in the early days, him and I used to study for our CMTs together back in 2006.
What’s nice about this is that in his current position, and for 10 years at Bloomberg prior to his 5 years at BofA, he’s had the opportunity to speak to many of the largest portfolio managers in the world. I want to know what he’s learned from all those conversations!
Paul always gives great perspective and as you know, the macro view carries a big weighting throughout our process. So this episode really hit home.
I took advantage and just hit him with all my favorite questions and topics in the FICC world. And he just chuckled and happily answered most of them.
This was great! I hope you enjoy this as much as I did!
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