Cotton has been in a horrific bear market for 5 years. When you talk about some of the worst places to be on planet earth over the past half-decade, Cotton has to be near the top of the list. After peaking near 220 in early 2011, the price of Cotton has collapsed recently hitting a low under 55. [Read more…]
[Premium] Chart Of The Year: What To Do With Gold and Silver?
Sometimes I share with you guys what I think is a really interesting chart and/or trade and call it the “Chart of the Week”. Other times I’ll put together a study to try and confirm or invalidate a prior thesis of mine and I’ll title that the “Spreadsheet of the Week”. Today, however, I think I have what could very possibly be the Chart Of The Year! [Read more…]
Why Natural Gas Could Rally 40% From Here!
From the desk of Thomas Bruni @BruniCharting
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In early January I was pretty vocal about fading the rally in Natural Gas futures, but with my downside targets met last week, I think this market is setting up for another sharp rally to the upside.
Before getting into my price analysis, it’s important to point out that Natural Gas just entered what is seasonally the best 3 month period of the year while public pessimism sits at multi-year highs. The combination of these conditions could provide prices with a serious tailwind if they begin to gain momentum to the upside. [Read more…]
[Chart Of The Week] About That Bottom In Crude Oil
There are a lot of interesting things going on in the Crude Oil market these days from both a long-term and a short-term perspective. Premium Members of Allstarcharts have wanted to be long Crude Oil since mid-February when prices were able to get back above that key $29.60 level. Our short-term upside target was near $38 and this target is being hit this week. Nice little 30% rally. But moving forward, the implications of this short-term move now change the supply and demand dynamics in Crude Oil bigger picture. [Read more…]
Crude Oil Confirms An Epic Failed Breakdown
From the desk of Thomas Bruni @BruniCharting
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Crude Oil confirmed a failed breakdown below the 2009 lows last week. This development is extremely important from a risk management standpoint and has big implications from an inter-market perspective.
This market has been in a structural downtrend since late 2014 when prices broke down out of a five year long symmetrical triangle. The resolution out of this pattern was explosive, with prices declining roughly 75% off of the 2014 highs in less than two years. During this decline there has been no reason to be long this market for anything more than a tactical bounce, but with last week’s close above the 2009 lows it is finally feasible for those with a longer-term time horizon to approach this market from the long side. [Read more…]
Why There is Another 20% of Upside in Lumber Prices
From the desk of Thomas Bruni @BruniCharting
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If you’re a market participant, Lumber should be on your radar. The weight of evidence suggests that this market has upside roughly 20% upside from current levels and offers a trade opportunity not correlated to US equities.
Lumber has been in a structural downtrend since breaking down from a symmetrical triangle in early 2015. The decline continued throughout the year, with prices putting in a failed breakdown and bullish momentum divergence at long-term support near 215. After confirming the failed breakdown by closing back above the May 2015 lows, prices consolidated for 5 months and have now broken out above a multi-year downtrend line. [Read more…]
Bloomberg TV Appearance: Emerging Markets, Gold Miners & Energy
On Monday afternoon I was over at the Bloomberg headquarters in New York City to discuss markets with Joe Weisenthal, Alix Steel and Scarlet Fu. Every time I’ve been on a guest on this show I’ve had pretty much nothing but bad news to share as far as the stock market is concerned. In January, all of our downside objectives were achieved and I’ve really changed my tune. I think this strength we’ve seen in stocks over the past month continues, particularly the relative strength in emerging markets.
Here is the video in full: [Read more…]
Cotton Prices To Stay Soft
From the desk of Thomas Bruni @BruniCharting
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With Cotton futures nearly 75% off their 2011 highs, market participants may be looking for a reason to get long this market. The weight of evidence however, suggests there is likely another 15% downside ahead.
The daily chart spanning back nine years shows prices topping and subsequently beginning a downtrend in early 2011. Over the past eighteen months prices have consolidated as they attempted to break back above the 2012 lows and downtrend line from the 2011 highs. Despite its efforts, Cotton could not close back above the confluence of resistance at 68 and is now threatening to break through the lower end of the 57-68 range.
From a structural perspective the next logical area [Read more…]
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