This is the video recording of our October 4, 2021 Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session
Brokering Deals for Higher Yields
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
We’re finally starting to see resolutions in the bond market.
The 30-year yield is back above 2.00%, the 10-year has reclaimed 1.40%, and the 5-year yield has cleared 1.00% for the first time since February 2020.
Now that it appears rates have picked a direction, what are the implications for the other two major asset classes, stocks and commodities?
As we highlighted last week, we want to look at cyclical and value stocks along with economically sensitive commodities, specifically energy and base metals.
And, in case you haven’t heard, higher yields should also put a bid in financials.
Earlier in the month, we pointed out the relationship between the 10yr-3mo spread and Regional Banks $KRE relative to the S&P 500 $SPY.
Today, we want to follow the same train of thought but apply the analysis to Broker-Dealers $IAI. [Read more…]
Who’s Ready for Rising Rates?
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
I was talking to the team earlier this week and mentioned that I was having a hard time writing. Grant and Ian were quick to remind me that it’s probably because “nothing new is happening!”
They were right. Until now…
We finally got a major resolution in what we consider one of the most important charts in the world these days.
I’m talking about the US 10-year yield reclaiming that critical 1.40% level this week. And this begs the question as to what a rising rate environment might mean for investor portfolios.
Well, one thing we know for sure is we want to stay away from bonds… unless we’re shorting them.
But how do we want to position ourselves in the stock market if yields are breaking out? [Read more…]
RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (09-16-2021)
From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza
Welcome to our latest RPP Report, where we publish return tables for various asset classes and categories, along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
We consider this our weekly state of the union address, as we break down and reiterate both our tactical and structural outlook on various asset classes and discuss the most important themes and developments currently playing out in markets all around the world.
In our RPP Report from the end of August, we discussed how the weakest areas were registering failed breakdowns and digging in at support.
In our most recent report, we focused on how the strongest areas were making fresh record highs. Things were looking up for the bulls… but that changed once again.
We’ve talked about how it’s been a back and forth battle with neither buyers nor sellers making any material progress for months now. And that’s exactly what we’re continuing to see, as bears have regained control again, pushing the major indexes lower for five straight sessions coming into this week.
For this reason, we thought a mid-week edition of the RPP would be appropriate to give us time to see what kind of follow-through would occur following the recent selloff.
In this week’s report, we’re going to talk about this near-term weakness but also some positive developments, like the healthy expansion in participation for ex-US equities in recent weeks and months.
I’m working with a broken hand these days, so we’re also going to try and let the charts do most of the talking. Don’t worry, there are plenty out there that have something to say. Let’s look at some now.
Bulls Take Lead Late In The 3rd
As the third quarter winds to a close, the bulls just took the lead for the first time since early in the 1st half.
Everything is clicking for them and they’re in control of the game right now. While it’s been a nice comeback, it’s still just 52 to 48, so they have plenty of work to do.
I’m not talking about basketball. Not the Chicago bulls. I’m referring to stock market bulls and the current score on our risk checklist.
It’s currently at its highest reading since we started publishing it back in June, so we’d be remiss not to write about it.
It’s been a great roadmap for us in recent months so let’s have a quick look at what it’s saying now as well as some of the more recent developments that have taken place.
Will Credit Spreads Lead Banks Higher?
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Mixed signals have been the rule rather than the exception since the market peaked in early February.
The major stock indexes have continued to print record highs while breadth has deteriorated beneath the surface, creating several bearish divergences.
Some stocks have gone up and some stocks have gone down. But the reality is that most stocks have gone nowhere.
The same is true for commodities.
We’ve noticed pockets of strength in base metals, livestock, and softs. But the majority of commodities have remained range-bound since the beginning of May.
Even the bond market is flashing its fair share of mixed signals.
One that stands out in particular is the relationship between the US 3s10s and the Regional Banks $KRE relative to the S&P 500 $SPY. [Read more…]
RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (Monthly Chart Edition)
From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts
Welcome to our latest RPP Report, where we publish return tables for various asset classes and categories, along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
We consider this our weekly state of the union address as we break down and reiterate both our tactical and structural outlook on various asset classes and discuss the most important themes and developments currently playing out in markets all around the world.
In our last report, we discussed all the whipsaws we had been witnessing in recent weeks and noted that the next major piece of information would be the velocity of the reactions these charts made in the opposite direction.
Fast forward to today and the bulls got all the follow-through they could want as many risk assets reclaimed all their damage and more. These were true failed breakdowns, and we’re still seeing those fast moves carry on higher today.
But today is a special occasion. We just got new monthly candles. So that’s going to be the focus in this week’s report.
Long story short, we have a lot of failed breakdowns bouncing aggressively off support in the weakest areas. More on that to come in a post soon. At the same time, we have a ton of new highs from the strongest areas.
Let’s talk about some of them now. [Read more…]
[Podcast] Momentum, Breadth & Seasonality w/ Ed Clissold, Chief U.S. Strategist at Ned David Research
On this episode of the podcast, I sit down with Ed Clissold, Chief U.S. Strategist at Ned Davis Research.
I’ve been a big fan of Ed’s work for a long time, not to mention Ned Davis is one of my personal heroes.
The work they do over there has been inspiring to me throughout my entire career. So as you can imagine, it was so fun and such a pleasure to chat with Ed.
We talk about Market Breadth, Sector Trends, Momentum and Seasonality.
If you have any exposure whatsoever in the market, or even thinking about putting on exposure, then this is the episode for you!
Enjoy!
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