Andrew Thrasher is the person I turn to whenever I have questions about Volatility and the $VIX. I know he tracks the data much more closely that I do and he does a good job of simplifying what may seem like complicated concepts. With the current market environment pricing in very low volatility moving forward, one can argue there is too much “complacency” towards stocks. Historically, corrections are sparked from this sort of setup. Who better to bring on to the podcast for this special Volatility Episode than Andrew Thrasher, winner of the 2017 Dow Award for his paper on Forecasting a Volatility Tsunami. In this conversation we talk about the current volatility regime, the VIX curve looking out into early 2020 and how he incorporates breadth data to supplement his volatility analysis. I really enjoyed this conversation and it seems like the perfect time to talk about Volatility! [Read more…]
If you weren’t too busy reading reports of upcoming recessions, you may have noticed that the MSCI World Index broke out to new all-time highs this month. The award for best ETF Ticker goes to the good folks at iShares: $URTH
After a 21-month bear market, the planet Earth is now starting a new leg higher. I continue to believe very strongly that if stocks are above last year’s highs, it is incredibly irresponsible not to be aggressively long. [Read more…]
In September we saw a massive spike in the number of new 63-day highs in the Nifty 500’s components.
Today I want to take a look at look at the data and answer the questions how rare is this signal? and what are the forward returns?
The Nifty Public Sector Bank and Media sectors of the market have been laggards for a while, but we’re now beginning to see signs that rotation into these areas is ahead. [Read more…]
We’ve done the homework. New All-time highs are NOT a characteristic of a downtrend. Go back and check for yourself. I was just listening to the great Brooklyn poet Shawn Carter who inspired the headline. It’s true. This is not a bear market, by definition. So should we be looking for stocks to sell or should we be looking for stocks to buy? [Read more…]
This is the video recording of the October 2019 Conference Call.
This is my favorite time of the month – preparing for our Live Monthly Conference Call. It really gives me an opportunity to gather all of the evidence, put my thoughts and ideas down on paper and then explain it all in under an hour. It’s all pretty awesome!
In this call we talk about the US Stock market and where it fits within the Global Market complex. Throughout this process we’re also analyzing the commodities, interest rates and currency markets that apply to each country. Only then do we break things down to individual sectors and their sub industry groups to finally find the best stocks to express a bigger thesis.
We call this the top/down approach and I’m pumped to go through it all on Tuesday’s Call.
Over the weekend I was going through all of the International Markets and could not help but noticed the strength popping up all over the world: Japan, Brazil, Europe and more recently Taiwan. One chart that really stood out was the Global Dow Index. I don’t know why I don’t see more people talking about this one.
It’s a hidden secret I guess and even Strazza makes fun of me because he says I’m the only one who talks about the Global Dow. Look at the components. It’s an important list, and probably weighted pretty well, if you ask me: [Read more…]
Walter Deemer has been a Technical Analyst for 57 years, after starting his career at Merrill Lynch working for legendary Technician Bob Farrell. He is a founding member and past president of the CMT Association and coined the phrase, “When the time comes to buy, you won’t want to!”, which is the title of one of the books he’s authored. We’re lucky to have someone on the podcast who was in the business at a time when interest rates were NOT in a downtrend! In this episode, Walter talks to us about what it was like charting in the 1960s and 70s and what sentiment was like as we entered the 1980s and one of the greatest economic expansions in America history. “Watch their feet, not their mouths”, is what Walter Deemer says when he encourages us to look at what investors are doing, rather than their opinions. This was a great conversation where we discuss what he calls our “Shoulda Fund” and what the Breakaway Momentum Strategy (breadth thrusts) means to him. I really enjoyed this one! [Read more…]