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Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets

Biggest Day In Bitcoin History?

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The big news dropped yesterday that Grayscale won their case vs the SEC apparently paving the way for a new Bitcoin ETF soon.

Whether any of this is true or not isn’t really our concern.

I couldn’t care less about Grayscale or any of their personal issues.

The “news” is not our problem. What we’re really interested in what is actually happening.

But a 5-6% ripper in Bitcoin yesterday and a near 30% rally in Marathon Digital certainly gets my attention.

First, here is a longer-term look at the structural uptrends in Bitcoin and Ethereum as they both held support from former resistance levels at their prior cycle peaks.

Notice how the buyers stepped in right near those former highs: [Read more…]

March Strategy Session: 3 Key Takeaways

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From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We held our March Monthly Strategy Session on Monday night. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.

Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.

By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.

With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.

[Read more…]

Stepping Back

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What can we say?

Bitcoin’s absorbing overhead supply.

Our first target was 25,000, and it got hit.

Now we wait.

It’s vital to not let the day-to-day price action drive our execution. It’s driven by nothing but emotion, and it does more harm to investors than good.

We all know this. But it can be difficult to step back when necessary.

Objectively speaking, one of the many elements that differentiate great investors from mediocre ones is the ability to sit out of the market when there are no high-conviction opportunities.

One of our simple workarounds to this constant desire to be positioned is to set our invalidations and targets prior to putting money on the line.

[Read more…]

Taking a Pause

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Last week, most crypto markets saw moderate selling pressure following retests of critical levels of resistance.

At the same time, momentum is diverging in a bearish fashion, with our indicators putting in lower highs on this most recent high in price action.

Further, equity markets have begun to feel the pressure after selling off on a retest of resistance levels.

We’d previously noted that Bitcoin and equity indices had briefly decoupled on short time frames, pointing to resiliency on the part of crypto markets.

Last week, we saw this correlation return, with Bitcoin being dragged lower by selling pressure in risk markets generally.

[Read more…]

Relative Strength: The Most Underrated Indicator

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The most underrated element of technical analysis has to be relative strength.

It’s impossible to outperform your benchmark if you own assets that are underperforming.

Much of this work is grounded in the overarching notion that asset prices trend while volatility mean-reverts.

But humans behave as if it’s the opposite.

Relative strength is merely denominating prices in a different asset than the native currency. Like price trends, relative strength also exhibits a tendency to trend, rather than mean-revert.

So, what does that mean?

[Read more…]

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