This is the video recording of the October 2021 Conference Call.
The Bond Market Reaches for Risk
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
We’re beginning to see signs that risk-on behavior is re-entering the market.
Commodities are ripping in the face of a rising dollar.
Cyclical stocks are back in gear as the S&P 500 High Beta ETF $SPHB posts higher highs and higher lows relative to its low-volatility alternative $SPLV.
Meanwhile, classic risk-appetite barometer AUD/JPY sliced through a critical level of former support-turned-resistance earlier this week.
All of these point to an increasing risk-on environment.
But what does the bond market have to say about investor positioning toward risk?
Let’s look at a couple credit spreads that speak to investors’ willingness to incur risk. [Read more…]
[Premium] Q4 2021 Playbook
This is our ASC Research Q4 2021 Playbook.
- Stocks (International & U.S.)
- U.S. Sectors & Industries
- Market Breadth & Sentiment
- Commodities
- Currencies
- Intermarket Analysis
- Crypto Currencies
- New Trade Ideas
- Overall Strategy
The Bulls Are Scoring More Points
One thing unique about the market is that the game is never over. There aren’t four 15-min quarters or two 20-min halves like in sports.
In those endeavors there is a beginning and an end.
You know who won (or who tied in some cases). But the match is over, and there will be another one in a few days or a few months, depending on the sport.
In the market, it never ends. This can cause issues psychologically, so it’s something we should all be aware of and keep in mind.
But if you ask me, currently the bulls are scoring a lot more points. This is the first time we’ve seen that since Q1 this year, when the bears started running up the score.
Look at the S&P500 break out to new all-time highs relative to US Treasury Bonds. [Read more…]
Where’s the Alpha At?
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Back in August, we presented two opposing views of the relationship between stocks and bonds.
The question was, after running into resistance at a key extension level, in which direction would the $SPY/$TLT ratio resolve?
Would stocks break higher relative to bonds, in the direction of the underlying trend?
Or would the ratio roll over in favor of bonds? It would certainly be a logical level for a trend reversal…
Fast forward two months, and we finally have our answer. [Read more…]
My favorite Head & Shoulders Patterns
[Premium] Monthly Charts Strategy Session October 2021
This is the video recording of our October 4, 2021 Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session
Brokering Deals for Higher Yields
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
We’re finally starting to see resolutions in the bond market.
The 30-year yield is back above 2.00%, the 10-year has reclaimed 1.40%, and the 5-year yield has cleared 1.00% for the first time since February 2020.
Now that it appears rates have picked a direction, what are the implications for the other two major asset classes, stocks and commodities?
As we highlighted last week, we want to look at cyclical and value stocks along with economically sensitive commodities, specifically energy and base metals.
And, in case you haven’t heard, higher yields should also put a bid in financials.
Earlier in the month, we pointed out the relationship between the 10yr-3mo spread and Regional Banks $KRE relative to the S&P 500 $SPY.
Today, we want to follow the same train of thought but apply the analysis to Broker-Dealers $IAI. [Read more…]
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