This is the video recording of the April 2022 Mid-month Conference Call.
We discussed:
Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by JC
This is the video recording of the April 2022 Mid-month Conference Call.
We discussed:
by Ian Culley
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Treasury Bonds have collapsed in recent months as interest rates have rallied to their highest levels in years.
And it’s not just treasuries, the trend is lower for corporate bonds as well.
While fixed income markets have experienced steady selling pressure since 2021, downside volatility has accelerated in recent months. Following the worst Q1 returns in decades, bonds have continued to plunge to kick off the 2nd quarter.
The best way for us to take advantage of this is to keep finding clean setups to short.
Today, we will outline a couple of shorts in high-yield debt and discuss what a sustained downtrend for these bonds could mean for the broader market.
by JC
This is the recording from the April 2022 Conference Call for Members of the Allstarcharts India! Before getting into individual stock ideas in India, we’re going to first start with the global macro perspective. Once we identify the direction of the underlying trends from a structural and broader view, then we’ll dive into the NIFTY Indexes on both longer-term and short-term timeframe. We want to look at Large-caps, Small-caps and everything in between before getting into the Sector and Industries themselves like Energy, Banks and Pharma.
This is when we finally break things down to the individual stock scenario with identified risk vs reward opportunities. That is what this is all about – aligning ourselves in the direction of the underlying trend while at the same time identifying where the risk is to make sure the potential reward is skewed exponentially in our favor. You will find that throughout this process we discuss Momentum, Fibonacci and Relative Strength. I encourage you to check out the Education Section so you know exactly where I’m coming from when you hear me mention these tools.
Here is the video in full:
by Ian Culley
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Benchmark yields have moved in a vertical line higher since the beginning of March. This isn’t just the case in the US; we’re seeing similar action all across the globe.
But as rates rally higher and higher, more and more classic intermarket relationships are failing to confirm the move.
Yes, commodities and commodity-related stocks remain resilient, and bonds are an absolute dumpster fire.
Most other assets we would expect to do well in a rising rate environment simply aren’t. This is especially true for the banks!
Meanwhile, those groups that we’d expect to underperform in this kind of environment, such as utilities and other defensive stocks, are actually outperforming.
All of this speaks to risk-aversion, not risk-seeking behavior.
Let’s take a look at some of our favorite intermarket ratios and put these bearish divergences into perspective.
by JC
This is the video recording of our April 5th Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session
by Ian Culley
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
It finally happened…
The yield curve inverted for a brief moment as the 2-year yield rose above the 10-year earlier this week.
But whether or not it inverted yet is beside the point. It’s been flattening for a long time, and that’s the direction we’re headed in. It’s only a matter of time.
While media outlets and fearmongers will spin this development as an urgent warning of an impending bear market, here’s what you need to know: Throughout history, equities have done well during and after inversions.
This commonly observed leading indicator has a tendency to precede major market tops by years, not months. In other words, there’s still time. The average lead time is about 18 months after prior inversions.
More importantly, when it comes to forecasting bear markets and recessions, many experts will argue that it is actually not the 2-year we should be focused on, but the 3-month yield.
And when we do this, the outlook is the exact opposite of what the 2s/10s spread is currently portraying.
Let’s take a look!
by Ian Culley
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
It’s beginning to feel more and more like a risk-on environment out there.
Commodities are ripping higher. Stocks are digging in at critical levels. And defensive assets such as Treasury bonds and the Japanese yen are in freefall.
Despite the market volatility this year, investors continue to be rewarded for buying stocks over bonds. This has been the case for two years now, and there’s no evidence it will change anytime soon.
When we look to our risk indicators and risk appetite ratios, the majority are still stuck in a range. With the stocks versus bonds ratio resolving to fresh highs, we’re thinking the rest may soon follow.
But first and foremost, the price action from this classic intermarket relationship suggests that stocks are still the place to be.
Let’s take a look.
by JC
This is the recording from the March 2022 Conference Call for Members of the Allstarcharts India! Before getting into individual stock ideas in India, we’re going to first start with the global macro perspective. Once we identify the direction of the underlying trends from a structural and broader view, then we’ll dive into the NIFTY Indexes on both longer-term and short-term timeframes. We want to look at Large-caps, Small-caps, and everything in between before getting into the Sector and Industries themselves like Energy, Banks, and Pharma.
This is when we finally break things down to the individual stock scenario with identified risk vs reward opportunities. That is what this is all about – aligning ourselves in the direction of the underlying trend while at the same time identifying where the risk is to make sure the potential reward is skewed exponentially in our favor. You will find that throughout this process we discuss Momentum, Fibonacci and Relative Strength. I encourage you to check out the Education Section so you know exactly where I’m coming from when you hear me mention these tools.
Here is the video in full: