From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Now that inflation is no longer transitory and we’ve officially entered bear market territory, “recession” is the next buzzword on deck.
And don’t worry: Plenty of banter surrounding the yield curve will take center stage during all this recession talk.
Somehow, an inverted yield curve has become synonymous with recession even though the historical record supporting this narrative leaves room for plenty of interpretation.
The purpose of this post is not to present an argument on whether we’re already in a recession or if one is imminent. We’ll leave that up to the talking heads and economists.
Instead, we’ll simply share where the yield curve is today and assess the likelihood of potential inversion.
Let’s take a look…