This is our ASC Research Q4 2021 Playbook.
- Stocks (International & U.S.)
- U.S. Sectors & Industries
- Market Breadth & Sentiment
- Commodities
- Currencies
- Intermarket Analysis
- Crypto Currencies
- New Trade Ideas
- Overall Strategy
Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by JC
This is our ASC Research Q4 2021 Playbook.
With the current market environment giving us many mixed messages, what better time to dive in and see what’s happening underneath the surface?
by JC
A big concern for stocks this summer was that there weren’t any bears left.
Most of the silly permabears had given up and moved on to torture investors in other asset classes like Bitcoin or Gold.
Sentiment this summer was a headwind.
And now it’s the opposite. Sentiment is a tailwind for stocks.
Take a look at the sentiment from Financial Advisors and Individual investors. Just a few months back, we saw the most amount of bulls since January 2018, just before stocks all over the world plummeted.
All it took was half the nasdaq stocks dropping 20% for sentiment to mean revert. Take a look at this chart showing that we’re down to levels where bulls historically start showing up, and that’s usually because of an increase in stock prices: [Read more…]
by JC
One of the first things you learn in Technical Analysis is that markets are fractal.
That means that you’ll find the same human behaviors (i.e. price patterns) whether you’re looking at daily timeframes, weekly time frames or even intraday (e.g. 10-min or 30-min candles).
This is a concept that Brian Shannon has done an amazing job of highlighting throughout his career. Brian has been an inspiration to me since about 2005, which is pretty unbelievable to think about. Since then we’ve become friends and go skiing together and all that. It’s pretty cool how life works sometimes.
Anyway, the idea behind “Multiple Timeframes”, which is literally part of the title of Brian’s book (go buy it), is to use this reality of “markets being fractal” to our advantage.
That can mean a lot of different things to different people.
For us, in what we do here at All Star Charts is, we start with Weekly and Monthly time horizons. That’s where it all begins. [Read more…]
by JC
One thing unique about the market is that the game is never over. There aren’t four 15-min quarters or two 20-min halves like in sports.
In those endeavors there is a beginning and an end.
You know who won (or who tied in some cases). But the match is over, and there will be another one in a few days or a few months, depending on the sport.
In the market, it never ends. This can cause issues psychologically, so it’s something we should all be aware of and keep in mind.
But if you ask me, currently the bulls are scoring a lot more points. This is the first time we’ve seen that since Q1 this year, when the bears started running up the score.
Look at the S&P500 break out to new all-time highs relative to US Treasury Bonds. [Read more…]
by JC
It’s Saturday Morning Chartoons time.
This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.
by JC
We’re back with another podcast episode of The Compound & Friends with Josh Brown and Michael Batnick of Ritholtz Wealth Management. This time we were also joined by Tyrone Ross, CEO of Onramp.
While the main focus may have been crypto markets, we also discussed rising rates, bank stocks, energy and gold.
This was a lot of fun, as usual with this crew!
Hope you enjoy. [Read more…]
by JC
On this episode of the podcast, Steve Strazza and I sit down with Brian G, who many of you will recognize as @AlphaCharts on Twitter.
I’ve been following Brian for many years and love a lot of the work he puts out. It was really fun hearing his story about how he became a technician.
It isn’t something that happens overnight, that’s for sure. It’s a process.
First we get into the evolution of become a Technical Analyst, and then we dive into what we’re doing about it in the current environment.
Hope you enjoy!
by JC
My favorite Head & Shoulders Patterns are the ones that aren’t that at all.
Markets trend. We know that for a fact. That’s why Technical Analysis works. Because as Technicians, we’re identifying primary trends.
And since we know that market returns do not fall under a normal distribution, and in fact, prices actually trend, it gives us a huge advantage over those who purposely choose to ignore price.
Funny how people like to ignore the only thing that actually pays anybody.
I always thought that was so strange.
Anyway, in today’s example of “Not a Head & Shoulders Top”, we take a look at Copper Prices. If you have any exposure whatsoever in the market, stocks, bonds or otherwise, then this is a resolution that will interest you and most certainly impact the value of your portfolio.
So is this a massive top in Dr. Copper? Or just a continuation pattern that will resolve higher, in the direction of the underlying trend? [Read more…]