Where did all the bears go?
Have you noticed?
There aren’t any left…
This chart above combines both the Investor Intelligence Advisors Survey and the American Association of Individual Investors Poll.
And Survey Says: No Bears. Or the be sure, the fewest since early 2018.
You need bulls for stocks to go up right?
Of course you do!
And over the past 14 months or so, those bulls have increased in number, in turn driving stock prices higher.
But now those Bulls are starting to go away:
Where we’re also seeing this deterioration in bulls is in the NAAIM Survey. This polls actual Active Investment Managers on their positioning.
Notice how with each new high in the market, they’ve had less and less conviction each time, with less exposure to stocks on each rally:
These are all great ways to analyze sentiment.
But from a pure price standpoint, all eyes need to be on Regional Banks.
If regionals are above those 2018 highs, then things are fine.
A break lower, however would put this group in a serious predicament.
If all that resistance from 2018, does NOT turn into support, then that’s a big problem.
Here’s a zoomed in look at Regional Banks. You can see the rollovers in both momentum and relative strength:
Like I said, if Regionals can’t hold the lows since February/March around 63, then this market is likely in for a messy summer.
Is this time different?
Will they hold those lows?
Will they break?
Drop us a line. Tell me what you think!
June 2021 Conference Call
Tuesday night was our latest Live Monthly Conference Call.
Click here to access the video recording. On this page you can find both the video of the call and the PDF of the slides to download.