This is the video recording of the May 2023 Mid-month Conference Call.
Investors Don’t Believe Their Eyes
[Premium] Mid-Month Conference Call Video Recording April 2023
This is the video recording of the April 2023 Mid-month Conference Call.
Sentiment Check: Large Speculators Get Aggressively Short
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
Recessionary fears run high.
Everyone is talking about an imminent economic downturn and the next stock market crash.
You hear it on the news and in the streets – talk of the banking crisis, the Fed, inflation, and China pervades the narrative. Even my doctor assured me the world is headed for dark times during a routine appointment earlier this week.
Bearish sentiment is obviously alive and well.
But, as a chartist, I prefer to visualize these rumblings…
[PLUS] Weekly Sentiment Report: Just Catching Their Breath
From the Desk of Willie Delwiche
Investors had second thoughts about stocks last week, with sentiment dropping across the board. This week’s Investors Intelligence survey shows a healthy return to optimism as bears dropped to their lowest level in over a year and the bull-bear spread moved back above its August high.
Why It Matters: Stocks tend to do well when persistent pessimism fades. In such an environment increasing investor optimism is a bullish tailwind for stocks. The shift from pessimism to optimism is not always a one-way street. Consolidation along the way is to be expected but a return to ex excessive pessimism would not be a healthy development. The latest II data suggests last week’s sentiment shift was the former rather than the later. We will look to the AAII & NAAIM (released later this week) for confirmation that investors were just catching their breath.
In this week’s Sentiment Report we look at how investors are responding to the recent price volatility and how that volatility may work against the emergence of a bull market.
[Premium] Monthly Charts Strategy Session March 2023
This is the video recording of our March 6th Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session
[PLUS] Weekly Sentiment Report: Higher Rates = Second Thoughts On Stocks
From the Desk of Willie Delwiche
When the Fed raised rates to 4.50% in early February, the market was expecting that any additional tightening this Spring would be taken back (and then some) and that by the end of the year the Fed Funds Rate would be at 4.25%. Now, the market is pricing in a year-end Fed Funds Rate of at least 5.25%. Over the course of a month, market expectations for rates have shifted higher by a full percentage point.
Why It Matters: Stocks stumbled in February as the markets digested the shift in expectations from “rate cuts by the end of the year” to a “higher for longer” reality. This led to investors who had been slow to embrace stock market strength to reconsider recently discovered optimism. We have documented that stocks tend to do well in the wake of persistent pessimism. Under-pinning this analysis is the assumption that pessimism is indeed fading. If expectations for higher rates lead to renewed pessimism, it will be difficult for sustainable strength to emerge. You need to have bulls to have a bull market. As we move into March we see evidence that investors are saying “thanks but no thanks.”
In this week’s Sentiment Report we see that investors are having second thoughts on stocks, how volatility has remained persistent and even with yields still rising, why bonds are relatively more attractive than stocks.
Sell Side Analysts Are Chasing
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