From the Desk of Willie Delwiche
Investors had second thoughts about stocks last week, with sentiment dropping across the board. This week’s Investors Intelligence survey shows a healthy return to optimism as bears dropped to their lowest level in over a year and the bull-bear spread moved back above its August high.
Why It Matters: Stocks tend to do well when persistent pessimism fades. In such an environment increasing investor optimism is a bullish tailwind for stocks. The shift from pessimism to optimism is not always a one-way street. Consolidation along the way is to be expected but a return to ex excessive pessimism would not be a healthy development. The latest II data suggests last week’s sentiment shift was the former rather than the later. We will look to the AAII & NAAIM (released later this week) for confirmation that investors were just catching their breath.
In this week’s Sentiment Report we look at how investors are responding to the recent price volatility and how that volatility may work against the emergence of a bull market.