Dynamic Portfolio Update: With the weight of the evidence improving, we are putting some cash to work in the cyclical portfolio while also staying well-positioned for opportunities from a tactical perspective. In both portfolios we are leaning toward strength that we are finding in equities beneath the surface and beyond our borders.
Big Levels Ahead for King Dollar
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
The US dollar index $DXY has some extra pep in its step after posting three consecutive daily gains.
In fact, the past few days constitute its largest three-day gain since the index peaked in late September.
I think it’s safe to say the long-awaited USD bounce has arrived. The question now is whether it will turn into a sustained rally.
No one knows, of course. But these next two levels will help us prepare for an impactful dollar advance…
Targets Hit, Now What?
They teach you this stuff at technical analysis kindergarten.
Buy support.
Sell resistance.
Of course, in the real world, with our primitive monkey brains, implementing this into a trading system is easier said than done. Just take a look at the squeeze you’re seeing in real-time in all these beaten-up growth stocks.
The permabears started shorting these names in droves when they’d already slumped into 90% drawdowns.
Talk about a reckless strategy…
[Premium] Monthly Charts Strategy Session February 2023
This is the video recording of our February 6th Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session
Follow The Flow (02-06-2023)
From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts
This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.
In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.
We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.
Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.
We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.
What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.
And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think the stock is about to move in their direction and make them a pretty penny.
Then we flip through our list of stocks flashing unusual activity and pick the best setups using many of the same technical filters we do for our other scans.
And, just like that, we’ll follow the money flow and fatten our own pockets along with some of the world’s most powerful financial institutions.
Under The Hood (02-06-2023)
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.
Welcome back to our latest Under The Hood column where we’ll cover all the action for the week ended February 3, 2023. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated on-and-off with our Minor Leaguers column.
What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.
We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.
There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: A list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.
Watch this video for a behind the scenes look at our process.
Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options activity, or simply our proprietary lists of trending tickers, there’s a lot of overlap.
[PLUS] Weekly Top 10 Report
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
Our Top 10 Charts Report was just published.
In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we’re currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
Reclaiming a Valuable Line
From an information standpoint, the Value Line Geometric Index (VLG) is one of the best tools we have at our disposal as it represents the median stock’s performance. Seeing this index make a higher high as it reclaims its prior-cycle highs from 2018 and peak from last August is a major bullish development.
[PLUS] Weekly Momentum Report & Takeaways
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
Check out this week’s Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let’s jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week’s report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
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