Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
Dynamic Portfolio Update: With new highs outpacing new lows every day so far this year, our net new high A/D line has turned higher and moved our “Fear or Strength” tactical model into its bullish zone. We are following the model and increasing risk exposure in the Tactical Opportunity portfolio.
Dynamic Portfolio Update: Our portfolios held up well in 2022. Now we are making some changes to remain well-positioned for the trends that are intact as we begin a new year. We’ve re-allocated equity exposure away from the US and toward areas around the world (both regions and countries) that are showing leadership while also making room in the portfolios to take advantage of the strength coming from precious metals.
Portfolio Update: Precious metals have been showing signs of life relative to base metals for some time. For example, the trend in the copper/gold ratio has favored gold 40 weeks in a row. Silver has also gotten in on the action and with it holding above a key level last week, we are adding it to our Tactical Opportunity portfolio this week.
Portfolio Update: In our Cyclical portfolio we have moved global equity exposure from Latin America to Europe while in the Tactical Portfolio we are reducing energy exposure to take advantage of shifting global leadership and improving trends from the metals.
Portfolio Update: As mentioned in yesterday’s Market Notes, our tactical models are arguing for patience rather than aggressiveness with respect to equity exposure. That being said we want to stay in harmony with relative opportunities as they emerge. While not putting new money to work, we have tweaked the holdings in our Dynamic Tactical Opportunity Portfolio.
With fear subsiding but strength slow to emerge, downside tactical risks are rising. We reduced the equity exposure in our Tactical Opportunity portfolio and have moved more cash to the sideline.
We sold commodities and bought bonds while tweaking where we get our equity exposure.
The Details: While none of the major asset classes are in up-trends, bonds now hold a relative advantage over stocks and commodities. We adjusted the exposure in the Strategic, Cyclical and Tactical portfolios to reflect these shifts and also to reflect leadership shifts we have seen within equities.
In our cyclical portfolio, we are shifting our global equity exposure, shortening the maturity of our fixed income exposure and getting out of the way of the break down in gold.
