We’ve all been there and we’ve all seen others do it to. We get one data point and then all of sudden we’re drawing direct conclusions based on that number. Think about how silly it sounds to make decisions based on a government report or even single chart or “technical pattern”.
The first thing we need to do is take a deep breathe (We live better when we’re breathing). Then we want to ask ourselves, “Ok, this is new data. How does this fit within the context of all the other data points”. We also want to identify how much weight we want to put on this particular data point.
It’s funny, when I first started studying for Sommelier exams, I caught myself doing the same thing. Instead of looking at the wine, smelling it, tasting it, thinking about what it could possibly be and then coming up with a guess, I was already making guesses just by looking at it. Light body? Pinot Noir!!! Heavy tannin? Napa Cab!!! Low acid white? Viogner all day baby! Wrong, Wrong and Wrong again!
I was making the same mistake people in the markets do every day. Even some of the best blind wine tasters do that too. They’re already thinking about a conclusion without even going through the process first. That’s not a recipe for success.
Let’s take a step back, evaluate all of the data, weigh the evidence responsibly and then come up with our conclusions. This goes for both market analysis and blind tasting wine!
Also see: Technical Analysts Are Sommeliers!