In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I make the bear case for US Stocks. I think we’ve been pretty clear about the fact that we believe stocks resolve this consolidation since 2018 higher, not lower. But I always think it’s important to take the other side and consider the alternative. What will the market environment most likely look like if we’re wrong, and we should be selling stocks rather than buying them. I think we brought up some good points here. [Read more…]
[Premium] Monthly Conference Call Video Recording September 2019
This is the video recording of the September 2019 Conference Call.
All Star Interviews Season 3, Episode 9: Raoul Pal, Founder & CEO of Global Macro Investor & Real Vision Group
Raoul Pal is someone whose work I’ve admired for years, both for his global macro perspective on the markets and the amazing job he and his team have done with Real Vision. I like how they’ve removed a lot of the conflicts of interest that come with traditional media reporting and the sensationalizing that comes along as a result.
As a Macro Analyst, he does a lot of intermarket, or “cross-asset”, analysis. Raoul and I see the world through a similar lens. One area where we differ is in our experiences throughout our careers and how that’s shaped our view points and biases. I really enjoyed that part of the conversation. As far as current markets are concerned, Raoul thinks that negative rates in the U.S. are a real possibility. He’s pointing out 30+ year trends in the bonds market. We discuss Bonds as well as a wide variety of topics in this episode.
I really want to thank Raoul for coming on. He was an excellent guest. Make sure to follow him on Twitter @RaoulGMI
[Read more…]
The Small-cap Revolution
When was the last time Small-caps were not a mess? At least a year now right?
The bearish argument has been that small-caps (and others) are underperforming the large-cap stocks and therefore, the divergence is a warning signal that the market is about to fall apart. Along the way, I’ve asked the question,
What if we get rotation into small-caps rather than the rotation out of large-caps that you keep promising me?”
In other words, instead of the last ones finally falling, what if the stocks down in the dumps get their act together and start playing catch-up?
What does the market look like in that scenario?
Well, I’m still in the camp that we see the latter, rotation into small-caps, not the former where the S&P500 crashes and we go into recession. Here are small-caps relative to large-caps. If we are going to start to see outperformance from the little guys, this would certainly be a logical place for it to start: [Read more…]
[Premium] Why Thursday’s Action Was Significant
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
Thursday was an important near-term inflection point for several major asset classes.
This post is going to cover what’s moving, why we’re taking notice, and what it could mean going forward.
Video: Stocks Near Former Lows Relative to Gold & Bonds
In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I talk the relative performance of stocks. When assets are in strong uptrends, they not only perform on an absolute basis, but they tend to outperform their alternatives. With new highs in the S&P500 last month, we’ve seen nothing but lower highs relative to both Gold and US Treasury Bonds. In fact, on a relative basis, the S&P500 is actually down to its late December 2018 lows. Will they hold or confirm a massive distributive top? I think the resolution will tell us a lot about the strength of the current stock market.
[Read more…]
[Premium] Bond Market Update
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
In early July we were looking at some divergences that were signaling a potential short-term bottom in US Interest Rates.
That thesis was quickly proven wrong as global yields pulled the US down with them, and last week in our Conference Call we discussed our current outlook for Bonds and their many intermarket relationships.
Earlier this week JC discussed the fact that Bonds are at an interesting level relative to the S&P 500 as well.
Yesterday I discussed some of the pitfalls to avoid when using Bond ETFs as a proxy for the underlying assets.
Needless to say, we’ve been talking a lot about Bonds.
In this post, I’m going to take a simplified look at price action and momentum of the 2, 5, 10, and 30-Year Treasuries to assess the reward/risk and if there’s a short-term trading opportunity at current levels.
[Chart(s) of The Week] Bond ETF Ratios
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
This week I’ve seen a chart of High Yield relative to Investment Grade Bonds floating around with various conclusions, but I wanted to use this to highlight some things to consider when using Bond ETFs as a proxy for what’s happening in the market it’s meant to track.
[Read more…]
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