James Brodie started out auditing for Arthur Andersen and did not particularly enjoy it. In the early 1990s he started to learn about derivatives at the largest bank in the world before ultimately moving to Credit Suisse. He’s lived in London, Singapore, New York and Tokyo trading currencies for both the banks and proprietary and then started his own hedge fund. James is also on the Board of the CMT Association. I really enjoyed the advice he gives about what he learned from 2 massive losses he’s taken throughout his career. James is a big fan of behavioral finance and we talk about different studies where we’ve learned that the better traders actually have more losing trades than winning trades. Currently James is watching Gold, EURJPY and US Interest Rates and talks about how he wants to trade them. This was a fun conversation where we covered a lot of things. [Read more…]
A lot of the jokes in my community begin and end with gold bugs. I can’t think of any group that has been so wrong for so long. You could have literally been in anything else the past 8 years and made money. It’s all good though. What goes around comes around. Gold will have its day again, and I think it could be around the corner.
The US Dollar has been a big focus of ours all year (see here, here and here). The implications of the US Dollar’s next move will be felt worldwide. I’ve been in the camp that the US Dollar Index below 98 is positive for stocks and that a drop in the Dollar will most likely coincide with a rotation into emerging markets and european equities. While the Dollar has remained below 98, it’s been more of a sideways range that anything else. But we may have just seen the beginning of this collapse.
Here’s why this is important: [Read more…]
This is the video recording of the May 2019 Conference Call.
Paul Ciana and I go way back to 2006 when him and I were studying for the CMT exams together. Today, Paul is the Chief FICC Technical Strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research. In English, that means everything outside of equities. It’s nice to see your friends succeed and watching him crush it is definitely one for the good guys.
In this podcast episode we dive deep into the FX world where Paul walks us through 3 important currency pairs that all stock market investors should follow. We talk about Crude Oil and Gold and other precious metals. The Dollar is a key focus right now for both Paul and me, so we get into what the implications are for stocks and other assets around the world.
I really enjoyed this conversation. It could have gone on for hours and hours. We’re lucky to have Paul come on the podcast. He speaks to the biggest PMs in the world on a daily basis and has been doing that for close to a decade and half. His unique perspective is a huge value add for sure! [Read more…]
Interest Rates in the United States hit new 52-week lows last month. But from the looks of it, the commodities market and stock market are not in agreement with that direction. It’s when we see divergences among asset classes that it gets my attention.
Today we’re looking at the divergences between stocks, bonds and commodities that I believe are pointing to higher rates this quarter. If we’re going to take the weight-of-the-evidence approach, it’s 2 to 1 in favor of rising interest rates. [Read more…]
This week on the podcast we have the pleasure of chatting with Craig Johnson, Chief Market Technician at Piper Jaffray. I’ve known Craig for a long time and love the work that he puts out. During the day he speaks to buy side clients all over the world. As a past president of the CMT Association, he has surrounded himself with some of the best minds in the history of technical analysis. His perspective based on who he speaks to and his experiences throughout his career make me want to listen when he has something to say. In this conversation we discuss the rest of the year for U.S. stocks and sectors. There’s a part in this episode that focuses on breadth and what we’re both looking for moving forward. Inflation, or lack thereof, is something he’s watching, so we talk about Gold, Oil and other inflationary factors that could impact stocks and bonds. We covered a lot. I really enjoyed this one! [Read more…]
It’s been a frustrating period for stocks in Canada over the past decade. Up just 7% since their 2008 highs, Canadian equities have been consistently underperforming for almost 10 years. But are things now finally changing? [Read more…]