This is the video recording of our October 3rd Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session
Will Key Levels Hold?
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
After months of selling pressure, the most widely followed commodity contracts are testing critical potential support levels.
More importantly, these support levels are the prior-cycle highs marked by the 2018 peaks. If there was ever a place where the bulls needed to step in and repair the damage this is it!
But, if these levels fail, we’ll have to rethink the structural uptrend in commodities.
Let’s run through the charts.
Where the Green Grass Grows
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
It’s not all doom and gloom out there…
I know the market’s ugly right now. Risk assets are getting crushed across the board.
But, believe it or not, greener pastures do exist in this market.
And, on days like these, I choose to focus on areas that aren’t free-falling into the fiery depths of hell.
[Premium India] Monthly Conference Call Video Recording September 2022
This is the recording from the live September 2022 Conference Call for Members of the Allstarcharts India! Before getting into individual stock ideas in India, we’re going to first start with the global macro perspective. Once we identify the direction of the underlying trends from a structural and broader view, then we’ll dive into the NIFTY Indexes on both longer-term and short-term timeframes. We want to look at Large-caps, Small-caps, and everything in between before getting into the Sector and Industries themselves like Energy, Banks, and Pharma.
This is when we finally break things down to the individual stock scenario with identified risk vs reward opportunities. That is what this is all about – aligning ourselves in the direction of the underlying trend while at the same time identifying where the risk is to make sure the potential reward is skewed exponentially in our favor. You will find that throughout this process we discuss Momentum, Fibonacci and Relative Strength. I encourage you to check out the Education Section so you know exactly where I’m coming from when you hear me mention these tools.
Here is the video in full:
[Premium] Mid-Month Conference Call Video Recording September 2022
This is the video recording of the September 2022 Mid-month Conference Call.
We discussed:
Silver Divergence. Wait, what?
Where To Prospect for Strength
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
The big news in commodities this week is gold breaking down to its lowest level since early 2020.
I recently outlined what a downside resolution for the shiny yellow rock could mean for inflation and the entire commodity space.
Spoiler alert: a fresh leg lower from gold doesn’t bode well for raw materials or the prospects of sustained inflation.
Nevertheless, inflation hasn’t gone anywhere, at least not yet.
As long as that’s the case, we expect commodities to see further upside, albeit not in unison. The broad rally witnessed at the end of 2020 into 2021 is unlikely to be repeated in the near future.
Regardless, stellar buying opportunities will present themselves.
We aren’t going to let the bifurcated nature of commodity markets stop us from catching the next explosive rally.
In other words, the supply and demand dynamics for copper don’t affect our decision to trade soybeans or wheat.
Instead, let’s trade what is in front of us – even as concerns of a global economic slowdown accentuate differences among the various contracts.
Don’t Lose Sight of Gold
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
Gold has been a terrible inflation hedge over the trailing 24 months. It’s gone nowhere since the summer of 2020, while every other commodities have experienced rip-roaring rallies.
The truth is, the “inflation hedge” narrative is just that – a narrative. And I believe it’s false.
But, more importantly, so does price.
I prefer to lean on John Murphy’s observation that gold has a tendency to sniff out inflation, leading to major bull runs in commodities.
And, with gold futures on the verge of breaking down to fresh two-year lows, I think it’s a good time to revisit this often misunderstood metal.
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