Due to a scheduling conflict around the annual CMT Symposium in New York, JC and I will be doing our monthly conference call a little later in the cycle this month. But have no worries, I’ll provide some updates below on positions we have open with April options that may need some attention or adjustments. [Read more…]
Long End Outperformance Continues
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
I received a ton of great responses via Twitter and email for this week’s Mystery Chart, so thank you for that.
Most said you’d be buying the breakout at current levels or on a successful retest, but a few skeptics were staying away. Let’s get into the actual chart.
[Premium] Semiconductor Deep Dive
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
The Equally-Weighted Semiconductor Index recently made new all-time highs, while the cap-weighted sits a few below its 2018 highs. What’s next for Semis? That’s what I hope to answer in this post.
All Star Interviews Season 2, Episode 19: Julius de Kempenaer, Creator of Relative Rotation Graphs
Relative Rotation Graphs are some of the best visual tools in Technical Analysis today. In this episode, I am thrilled to have the creator of RRG, Julius de Kempenaer, on to talk about what first inspired him to create this tool and what some of the best practices are for market participants. I discovered RRG about 6-7 years ago after watching a colleague use it during a presentation at Bloomberg in New York City. As a technician, I use charts to visualize data to help identify trends and manage risk. RRG is more of a rotation tool that can be used for sectors, country indexes and currencies. By using a combination of Relative Strength and Momentum data, the RRG rotates clockwise from Leading to Weakening, to Lagging, to Improving and then back again to Leading. In this discussion, Julius walks us through how he likes to use it and explains its construction. If you’re interested at all in sector rotation and relative strength, this tool is for you! [Read more…]
[Free Chart(s) of The Week] Failed Breakout Edition
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
Palladium. For the last 3 years, nobody cared a lick as it nearly quadrupled in price. Over the last month however, I’d seen more mentions* as the price trend accelerated than I did for the entire 3-year trend beforehand.
[Read more…]
Mystery Chart 03-27-2019
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
New Mystery Chart!
For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and eliminate the x and y-axes and and all labels eliminated to minimize bias. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. It can even be inverted or a custom index.
The point here is to not guess what it is, but instead to think about what you would do right now. Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?
[Options Premium] FAST earnings money?
I don’t often take long premium plays ahead of an earnings event, but there’s one coming on the horizon where the options pricing isn’t too high (yet) and the All Star Charts team has a price target that would yield us a greater than 4-to-1 return on risk if the earnings catalyst plays out in our favor. [Read more…]
Overthinking Intermarket Analysis: Yield Curve Edition
Everyone these days is talking about yield curves inverting. It’s the topic du jour, similar to things like golden crosses and 200 day moving averages. The difference is that this one is more intermarket oriented. “Well if this happens to bonds and that happens to rates, then this historically happens to stocks, or the economy”. Observing the behavior of one asset class to help make decisions on another is called Intermarket Analysis, or “Cross-Asset” in some more institutional circles.
I don’t think there is much more for me to say at this point about the yield curve. The crew over at The Chart Report pretty much covered it all beautifully last week. The short end of the curve (10-year minus 3-month) turned negative, but the long end of the curve did not. The 10s-30s spread is steepening and controlled by free markets vs the fed controlled short end. We’ve seen this happen before, like in the 90s for example, without it sparking bear markets. [Read more…]
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