This is the video recording of the June 17th Town Hall Meeting w/ Willie Delwiche
06/17/21 2PM ET [Read more…]
Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by Peter
This is the video recording of the June 17th Town Hall Meeting w/ Willie Delwiche
06/17/21 2PM ET [Read more…]
by Peter
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
I planned on writing about how fishing is a great metaphor for investing.
But I’ll have to tackle that idea another day.
Today, I’m thinking about fishing not as a metaphor for investing, but as a metaphor for not investing — actively stepping away to preserve financial capital. Perhaps even more importantly, stepping away to rebuild mental capital.
Whether it’s casting for trout in Oregon or trolling for salmon in Lake Michigan, getting away from our screens and electronic gadgets and connecting with the water is clarifying and restorative. It’s not just about the catch…
Beyond fishing, it’s important to cultivate places where we can get away from it all, even if for just a few moments. We need to find places where we can set aside the active wrestling with trends and troubles. Places where we can catch our breath, clarify our thoughts, and reinvigorate our souls.
by JC
These are the registration details for our live monthly conference call for Premium Members of All Star Charts.
This month’s Conference Call will be held on Tuesday June 22nd at 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.
Here are the details for Tuesday night: [Read more…]
by Peter
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
Key Takeaways:
2020 was a remarkable year in many ways. The rally that emerged off of the early year lows was broad-based and historically strong. It was fueled by numerous momentum surges, overwhelming amounts of fiscal and monetary liquidity, an unprecedented string of better than expected economic data, and a persistent trend in earnings estimates being revised higher. While 2021 began with some of those tailwinds intact, as we move toward the second half of the year, we want to avoid the assumption that nothing has changed as we have entered year two of the cyclical rally.
Breadth thrusts can signal strong and sustainable upward momentum for stocks that can last for up to a year. Our two favorite indicators are having 90% of stocks above their 50-day averages and/or 55% of stocks at new 20-day highs. These indicators last sent signals in late May and early June last year, and the breadth thrust regime from those signals has now expired. All of the net gains for the S&P 500 since 2010 have come during breadth thrust regimes. The path forward could remain rocky without another round of breadth thrusts.
We’re going to start taking full advantage of the data coming out of our weekly Follow the Flow report and put on at least one actionable trade from this list every week. If you’re not already familiar with this report, Steve Strazza puts it together each week and it highlights stocks with both unusual options flow plus interesting chart setups. Combined, these two factors offer traders a pretty unique edge to exploit.
Today’s idea is in a recent IPO which might offer us some additional oomph if it gets moving in our direction.
From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza
Welcome to our latest RPP Report, where we publish return tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
We consider this our weekly state of the union address as we break down and reiterate both our tactical and structural outlook on various asset classes and discuss the most important themes and developments currently playing out in markets all around the world.
And at present, markets are a total mess and full of mixed messages as most major stock market indexes continue to churn sideways in consolidation patterns, while many risk-on commodities are in corrective phases.
While the weight of the evidence still remains in the bullish camp, bears seem to add to their list of talking points with every passing week. We believe the highest probability outcome over the coming weeks to months is for risk assets to remain in a mixed and messy environment. Once we begin to see evidence that indicates the current “chop fest” is nearing an end, which could simply come in the form of a reduction in the number of bearish data points, we think this party resumes in the direction of the primary trend… which remains aggressively higher in most risk assets.
But as the evidence becomes increasingly mixed, so does the way we want to approach the market and position ourselves to profit from the present environment. While we’re still buying plenty of stocks exhibiting leadership all around the globe… for the first time in over a year, we’re focused more on shorting the losers.
Check out some of our recent shorts on our trade ideas page.
Last week, we discussed how a lot of the most recent evidence has tilted back in favor of the bulls with a number of upside resolutions, particularly in international equity indexes.
Well, what a difference a week can make. This past week, we saw the opposite as some major risk assets are now failing at key levels.
Again, this speaks to the mixed messages the market is sending now that these holding patterns are beginning to resolve. They’re resolving in both bullish and bearish directions… at least for now.
In today’s post, we’ll offer the opposing view from last week. We will also highlight some key charts that are experiencing bearish resolutions.
by Peter
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
Key takeaway: From a breadth perspective, the market is challenged right now by a scarcity of new highs. From a sentiment perspective, it has to contend with a scarcity of bears. Options data shows complacency even as risk appetites remain diminished. Bears on both the II and AAII surveys are near their lowest levels since 2018 and ETF inflows remain elevated. The household equity allocation tilt (versus bonds) is its most extreme since 1972. Stocks are loved, bonds are hated. All of this is very well summarized by our chart of the week from the Bank of America Fund Manager Survey which shows virtually no one is expecting (or prepared for) market volatility in the months ahead.
Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Missing Bears
It takes bulls to make a bull market, but it takes bears to help sustain it. The Bank of America Fund Managers Survey found only 2% expect a correction >20% in the next six months, emphasizing the lack of pessimism amongst investors. An acceleration in a sentiment unwind could very quickly remedy this situation.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza
Check out our latest Mystery Chart!
What we do here is take a chart that’s captured our attention, and remove the x and y-axes as well as any other labels that could help identify it.
This chart can be of any security, in any asset class, on any timeframe. Sometimes it’s an absolute price chart, other times it’s on a relative basis.
It might be a ratio, a custom index, or maybe the price is inverted. It could be all three!
The point is, when we aren’t able to recognize what’s in front of us, we put aside any biases we may have and scrutinize the price behavior objectively.
While you can try to guess the chart, the point is to make a decision…
So, let us know what it is… Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?