This is the video recording of the November 10th, 2022, Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.
11/10/22 2:00 PM ET [Read more…]
Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by Peter
This is the video recording of the November 10th, 2022, Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.
11/10/22 2:00 PM ET [Read more…]
by JC
In early October I was invited on to BNN Bloomberg where I was very clear in saying just how AGGRESSIVELY we wanted to be buying stocks.
See here: Buying Stocks & Fading Dollars (10-4-22)
That worked out well for us, and anyone else who was smart enough to follow along.
On Wednesday of this week I was invited back on to follow up on some of those comments.
Why was I so bullish?
Why was I ignoring all the noisemakers?
Because I’m a grown adult.
I don’t need bedtime stories to go to sleep.
The Fed means nothing to my life. And it shouldn’t impact yours either.
Here’s what we’re doing now:
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
We held our November Monthly Strategy Session Monday night. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.
Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.
By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.
With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.
by Louis Sykes
Guys, this is Technical Analysis 101.
You don’t buy an asset that’s just broken a level of support. If you do, you’re only asking for trouble.
As technicians, we keep things simple, and we tell it like it is. We’re not afraid to call something a piece of shit if that’s what the data tells us.
I find a level of beauty in this process.
It doesn’t matter how elegant your theory or big your I.Q. If the market is below a certain level, it’s all wrong.
Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.
We use various bottom-up tools and scans internally to complement our top-down approach.
One way we’re doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).
Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.
But the scan doesn’t just end there.
We are only interested in the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.
Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.
When you look at the stocks in our table, you’ll notice we’re only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online Retail, Solar, etc.
Then, like any good technician, we filter the list down to those closest to new highs.
This allows the cream of these secular growth industries to rise to the top and helps streamline our mission to identify technical breakouts in the top-performing stocks.
by Peter
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
The number of issues that traded on the NASDAQ in any given week just prior to COVID was somewhere around 3500. Last week 5500 issues traded on the NASDAQ.
Why It Matters: The number of issues trading on the NASDAQ topped out at over 6000 in 1997. By the time the NASDAQ 100 peaked in 2000, this number was already approaching 5000. As that bubble burst, the number of issues traded on the NASDAQ collapsed (dropping to 3500 by the end of 2003). Listings declined further during the Financial Crisis. The Technology sector has led the way lower in the current bear market and many former higher flyers are trading at pennies on the dollar. But listings on the NASDAQ have actually expanded since the index peaked nearly a year ago. It’s hard to think about the market healing when defunct companies haven’t yet been shown the door.
In this week’s Sentiment Report we take a closer look at how options traders are feeling and what it might take from a sentiment perspective for the stocks to hold true to typical post-midterm election tendencies.
“Why do you rob banks?” authorities asked notorious bank thief Willie Sutton.
His response: “Because that’s where the money is.”
We’re not planning on robbing anybody, but if today’s trade plays out like we think it can, it might feel like we’re stealing. Only, we won’t need to worry about the authorities coming after us, nor will we need to feel bad about it.
Our Analyst Willie Delwiche says that a basic requirement for many bullish ideas right now is that any stock or ETF in question needs to be above August highs. Anything below August highs is subject to a rude reversal. I’m on board with this line of thinking.
So, today’s trade is in an American bank that is above its August high and showing signs of wanting more.
by JC
We called it the trade of a generation.
And it’s worked great for us.
Now we have a similar setup and I think it can work out just as well. [Read more…]