This is the video recording of our June 2nd Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session
Overseas Rates Are on the Rise
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Back in January, the big story was the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note printing new multi-year highs.
At the time, other benchmark yields worldwide were also resolving higher, completing large bases.
This was confirming evidence that added to our conviction US yields were headed higher and that we were in the early stages of a rising rate environment.
The confirmation from global yields proved valuable information.
Almost six months later, the US benchmark is just below 3.00%. As it pauses below a critical level, we again turn to overseas rates to get a read on the potential near-term direction of the 10-year yield.
And just like earlier in the year, they’re pointing higher.
Let’s take a look.
The Adorable “Return Free Risk”
[Options] Managing Our Long CTVA June Calls
Mea Culpa — I’m letting this post stand because it offers two good lessons for traders:
1. The risk management laid out below is how I manage long calls heading into expiration. So anyone holding a similar position will benefit from this or a similar risk management plan.
2. It offers a lesson on keeping good records. I messed up. For ASO subscribers, we’re actually in the September calls, NOT JUNE CALLS. We have plenty of time until our position expires and therefore we actually don’t need to do anything here yet but enjoy our #FreeRide. The confusion for me is that I also have June calls on in my personal portfolio and I did not take careful notes in my personal spreadsheet. And when reviewing, I accidentally confused these June calls as part of the position we put on for ASO. So, yes, I personally will be exiting my June calls soon (as laid out below). But for those of you who followed me into our September calls trade, we’ve got time.
Sorry about the confusion.
Hello everyone! It’s the beginning of the month and during this time, I always review any open positions that have options expiring in this new month.
I reviewed our open positions with June options (LNG and MAIN) in this week’s Options Jam Session video for ASO subscribers (bookmark that link!), but I failed to mention our long June 60-strike calls in $CTVA! Somehow, it slipped my radar when I was putting this week’s presentation together.
So let me catch you up on what’s happening with this winning trade here. [Read more…]
Chart of the Day: 0% Tech
The Short Report (06-01-2022)
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as a market of stocks.
Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.
We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions… but there are always stocks that are going up.
The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too.
We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club. We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics.
Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports. Now, we’re also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.
[Options] Prepared for a Zoom in Either Direction
We play with the cards we are dealt. There is nothing else we can do. We cannot employ willpower to create market conditions into being the way we’d prefer them to be. They are what they are, it is what it is. So we work with what we’ve got.
And what we’ve got right now are a bunch of badly beaten up stocks. Many still off 60%+ from their recent highs.
Dumpster diving isn’t my favorite way to find new ideas to trade. But my man Strazza enjoys the exercise from time to time and recently, he’s uncovered some notable insider buying and unusual options activity in some former highflyers, most notably Zoom $ZM.
But first, let’s survey the damage. This probably isn’t new to many of you, but look how far ZM has fallen from its recent perch atop Momentum Mountain: [Read more…]
The Mexican Peso Packs a Punch
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
The US dollar is on the ropes as global currencies bounce back.
After failing to hold its breakout earlier in the month, the USD looks vulnerable against a growing number of currencies.
The pound and euro are catching higher. The Swiss franc is rebounding off its recent lows. And the commodity-centric Australian and Canadian dollars remain resilient.
We can add the Mexican peso to this list, as the USD/MXN cross broke down to fresh 52-week lows yesterday. This breakdown supports the near-term bearish argument for the dollar.
And it also offers a great trade setup.
Let’s take a look.
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