Life can be simple or you can make things complicated and noisy. It’s up to you.
What business are you in? The business of trying to make money in the market or the business of making and/or consuming noise?
I was out in Greece on my honeymoon for a couple of weeks last month, but I was keeping an eye on what was going on. I love the market and I enjoy observing human behavior. So why should I completely shut myself off from something I like doing?
Now that I am married, I would very much like to keep my wife happy, and I also think it’s important to get away (see here). So appropriately I shut things off and enjoyed my time in, what are now officially, my favorite islands in the world. It was funny because some of the locals in the Cyclades Islands were telling me how much they wanted to go to the Caribbean. I was like, “Naw man, stay here. Trust me!”
What I noticed from far far away is how noisy the market place can be if you let it. My friend Josh wrote an excellent piece this week about how he takes control of the type of media content he consumes. I thought it was really well written and I agree with almost all of what he had to say. Check out: Why I Don’t Wake Up To The News. From beautiful Mykonos and Naxos and Santorini, I was checking in on the markets, because that’s what I do, phoning into our desks to see what they were seeing and observing commentary on the twitter, from both intelligent market participants and noisy members of the media. The drama I witnessed was fascinating, especially looking at it from the outside.
Not just in times like this, but really every time, I think it’s important to take a step back and really see what is ACTUALLY happening in the market. I think the best picture of what is truly taking place is the behavior of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The way I learned it was, “Don’t fight Papa Dow”. The market doesn’t always have to be trending up, or trending down. It doesn’t always have to be a top or a bottom. Most of the time, it’s just in the middle. And sometimes, like it has been since early 2018, the trend is actually sideways. And what’s wrong with that?