I don’t like how many oversold conditions have been hit in the major indexes and most sectors. I’ve tried my best to point out the stocks showing both relative strength and momentum. But there are an awful lot of charts I see where oversold conditions in momentum is a problem. So the question becomes, is a retest of the lows necessary for stocks to continue higher? [Read more…]
Podcast Season 1 – Ep 18 – Daniel Crosby, Author of The Laws Of Wealth
![](https://allstarcharts.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/crosby.jpg)
Studying the behavior of market participants is something that we do on a daily basis, whether we recognize it or not. Especially as Technical Analysts who focus on changes in price at very specific levels, understanding the psychology behind why investors are behaving in certain ways is part of that process. Dr. Daniel Crosby is an excellent resource for investors looking to learn more about themselves and investor psychology. In this conversation we discuss the cognitive behavior traits seen on a daily basis from investors with elevated levels of stress due to active positions in the market. Recognizing these flaws is step 1 in our journey to learn more about ourselves so we can be in a position to make the best decisions possible in order to succeed. This is a podcast episode that I have wanted to record for a while now because I think it’s a good breakup from the more traditional market analysis and commentary. I hope this conversations inspires you to take a step back and become more aware of what you’re doing and why you’re doing it. I believe the more self-aware we are, the more efficiently and intelligently we can move forward as market participants.
Daniel Crosby, Ph.D. is the Author of The Laws of Wealth and The Behavioral Investor. I encourage you to check them both out!
[Premium] These Are Stocks We Want To Buy
The market is never going to give us what we want. We have to take what the market gives us. Play the hand we’re given, not the hand we wish we had. What worked in one market environment is not going to work in another. That’s why all those filters fail so frequently, because you’re trying to take something from the market instead of taking what it is giving us.
This week, a spike in volatility caused forced selling in stock index vehicles that trickled down to ETFs and individual stocks. We did not see any stress, however, in credit markets, currencies or any of the commodities like Crude Oil or Gold. This is further evidence that we want to continue be buyers of weakness, like we have been throughout all of last year and most of 2016. There will be periods where we want to be sellers of strength, but I don’t believe that is the correct approach today. [Read more…]
Some Thoughts On Position Sizing
I thought this would be a good time to share some of my thoughts on position sizing. I’ve noticed this week many people who never mentioned a futures contract are now opining on the futures market at all hours of the night. I know what that feels like. I’ve been there. 2008 was an amazing experience for me. It’s not the lifestyle that I want to live. Sleeping at night is healthy. If my positions are too big, I’m not sleeping.
To me, the key to avoiding bad decisions is to keep stress and emotional levels low. It’s hard to do that when there is too much money involved for you to handle responsibly. So we want to identify how much is too much. It’s not an easy answer and most likely something you’ll learn over time. When you get that feeling like you’ve just been punched in the stomach, you’re probably too big. You’ll know it when you feel it. Most of us have been there, multiple times. [Read more…]
[Premium] What Do We Do Now?
If you’ve been following along, I try and go out of my way to discuss risk management techniques, tools and signals when the market gives them to us. Whenever I lay out a thesis, I like to talk about what the market should look like in the case that we are correct, while at the same time outlining what the environment would look like if we are wrong. The idea is to picture both scenarios and as the data comes in, try to identify which outcome we’re in as quickly as possible.
Based on what we saw in some of the volatility related products this week, it’s clear someone got squeezed, or a bunch of someones. There was big money leaning in the other direction clearly. We’ve seen this sort of market behavior regularly – last April/May, then again in August. This was more extreme and most likely not the last time it happens. This is becoming normal. These leveraged products are a real risk when they all get squeezed simultaneously, there are forced liquidations. We saw elevated levels of volatility throughout the 90s and stocks kept rallying for years. So we can have volatility and rising stock prices at the same time. [Read more…]
[Chart Of The Week] Emerging Markets Outperformance Just Getting Started
It’s not a secret that Emerging Markets were the big loser for a long time. Since peaking during the 2010-2011 time period, the underformance of anything EM, Mining and Natural Resources has been clear to all of us. Gold was a terrible investment, mining stocks, stocks in mining countries and others in that area had been the worst place to put your money for many years. Although still not in a full fledged parabolic rise, we’ve seen what appears like a healthy completion of a massive base.
To me, this is suggesting that the outperformance we’ve been seeing out of Emerging Markets is just getting started. The initial burst from early 2016 was more of a beta trade. This is when stocks as an asset class bottomed and the worst of the worst, emerging markets in this case, outperformed because of their higher volatility nature and the simple fact that, the harder the pounce, the more violent the bounce. We’ve gone nowhere the past 15 months since that initial thrust of the lows. Until now. [Read more…]
Credit Spreads Are Still Narrowing, Showing Evidence Of Risk Appetite
The bond market is the biggest market in the world. Hello?
It’s easy to get caught up in the daily noise about some crypto currency or a biotech stock. But these are tiny tiny tiny itsy bitsy little markets. The bond market is a real market, with actual money in it and driven by the largest financial institutions and governments all over the world. If you want real information, the bond market is where to get it.
My friend Larry McDonald, a former Lehman Brothers Bond Trader, was on a recent podcast episode of Technical Analysis Radio talking about exactly this. I encourage you to give it a listen, it’s not long.
Today we’re taking a look at credit spreads. Why? Because we’re always watching them. In November when some people were freaking out about the sell-off in bonds, I tried to explain that it wasn’t about the bonds themselves, but the widening or narrowing of spreads that we were most interested in. [Read more…]
Watch The Videos Of All The Presentations At Chart Summit 2018
Chart Summit 2018 is in the books. What another great day of thought out presentations filled with both educational and timely actionable material. We try to make it a point here not to live life in theory, but in reality. I go to too many conferences where all the discussions are purely academic and theoretical. Listen, I understand that this sort of material is ‘evergreen’ and can be watched for a long time afterwards. Sure, and I like some of that too, don’t get me wrong. But we’re here in the market to make money. So we want to see you put your tools to work in the current market environment. What are we buying and what are we selling? Let’s make sure to talk about what’s most important!
This year I invited a group of presenters that I thought each brought a different perspective on the markets. Last year I tried to do something similar, but the 2018 Chart Summit was unique in many ways. Once again, we were broadcasting live from the internet on a Saturday so our audience was all over the world in the comfort of their own houses, flats and dorm rooms. The diversity of attendees was one for the record books, in terms of age, sex, location and occupation.
I could not be more proud of our amazing presenters. This crew hit it out of the park!
Here is the latest Technical Analysis Radio podcast episode where I invited young technician, up-and-comer Tom Bruni, otherwise known as @BruniCharting to come and talk about Chart Summit 2018. We point out our favorite charts, best presentations, biggest surprises and other superlatives from this year’s event.
Also, you can fill out the form below to receive an email with a link to all the videos of the presentations from this year’s Chart Summit: [Read more…]
- « Previous Page
- 1
- …
- 712
- 713
- 714
- 715
- 716
- …
- 951
- Next Page »