Looks like a stock that trades in sympathy with the Homebuilders sector (which we’re bullish on) is finally breaking out and ready for us to spring to action. [Read more…]
Mystery Chart (01-21-2020)
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
New Mystery Chart!
For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it’s a custom index or inverted, who knows!
We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.
You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now. Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?
[Options] A Teachable Moment in $BYND
Wow.
What a run we’re having in our Long May 100-strike calls in $BYND purchased on December 20th for $4.00 when the stock was trading below $77/share.
I wish I could say this was a regular occurrence, but of course we know this isn’t true. However, this I know with absolute certainty: stepping up to the plate and taking our swings in trades with proper reward-to-risk setups, appropriate position size, and a plan for risk management again and again allows us to “get lucky” every once in a while. And sometimes it only takes one or two trades to make your month or your year. This $BYND trade certainly has a solid chance to become one of those year-makers.
Back to luck, there’s a big difference between true “luck” like winning the lottery, and manufacturing your own luck through Best Practices. Which luck would you rather have?
I’ve been contacted a bunch by people who followed us into this trade and the general feeling I get from people is that they are scared — scared of letting these enormous open profits get taken away by the evil Mr. Market. [Read more…]
Are Utilities Pointing To Lower Rates Ahead?
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
My big question coming into this weekend was what should we make of the action in Utilities lately and what does it mean for Bonds?
Utilities are making new all-time highs on an absolute basis, posing this question on Twitter: “So is the breakout in Utilities to new all-time highs a signal that a Bond breakout is coming, or is it simply a bi-product of overwhelming demand for Equities?
This got a lot of attention and responses, so I thought it’d be worthwhile to quickly outline what I’m watching in Utilities and the Bond market over the next few weeks. [Read more…]
Three Charts Point To Higher Commodity Prices
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
In late August we started to see some signs of a potential bottom forming in Commodities as they approached long-term support with momentum diverging and in October we finally got a breakout.
Today that breakout in the Thomson Reuters CRB Commodity Continuous Index remains intact and the trend in Commodities as an asset class has shifted from one we want to be selling rips to one that we’re buying dips.
From an intermarket perspective, there are a lot of signals we’ve discussed that support higher Commodity prices such as the AUD/USD and CAD/USD breakouts, and today I want to share three more data points that have shown up in the last few weeks.
The World’s Most Important Charts
You guys know that I just tell it like it is. I don’t care what happens. The stock market can double or can get cut in half. Gold can go to zero tomorrow or to 10,000/oz and I won’t care. I’m too old to worry about the economic or social implications of market moves. Been there, done that and it doesn’t help. We have to look at everything as objectively as possible.
Now, with that said, I have some thoughts that some of you may not appreciate. But I’m not here to tell you what you want to hear. I’m here to tell you what I’m seeing right? So bear with me.
For those of you who have been around here a while, you remember just how bearish I was towards the US Dollar coming into 2019. The Dollar rolling over was a big catalyst for why we were so bullish of precious metals throughout the first 3 quarters of 2019. It wasn’t until September last year that we said, ok it’s time to get out.
That’s just a quick little history of our thought process, to give some of you newcomers perspective on just how open minded we are over here. Looking back, as well as precious metals did, the Dollar never rolled over. We got the gold trade right, but got the Dollar wrong. The US Dollar Index did not fall, but it didn’t rise either. It just sat there.
So now what? [Read more…]
[Options Premium] Going Back For More
Earlier this week, we entered a trade in Intercontinental Exchange $ICE because we’re loving that stock and loving the sector. Well, there’s more stocks setting up here that are worthy of our attention. And another beauty is setting up with low volatility pricing in relatively cheap calls. [Read more…]
If You Gotta Be Short…Short These Global ETFs
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
Thank you to everyone who responded to this week’s mystery chart.
A lot of mixed responses on this depending on their timeframe. Some were shorting the failed move and seeing how it developed, while others were patiently waiting for another breakout attempt to get long.
With that as our backdrop, let’s take a look at this week’s chart. [Read more…]
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