From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by Peter
by Peter
by Peter
This is the video recording of September 10th 2021 Weekly Jam Session with Sean McLaughlin.
by Peter
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
Despite government officials trying to explain it away, inflation is running at its highest levels in years or (in the case of producer prices) decades. For now, however, the bond market shows little evidence of concern. After pulling back from 1.75% to 1.15%, the yield on the 10-year T-Note has risen in recent weeks but remains below 1.40%. It has bumped up against that level but has not been able to get through it. German yields have moved higher recently and seem to be giving US yields a green light to break out. Resiliency from Financials even as yields were retreating in Q2 and Q3 also argue for an upside resolution here. The high P/E, speculative growth sectors of the market ran out of steam when yields moved higher earlier this year and they could be vulnerable again if yields make a sustained move to the upside from here.
by Peter
This is the video recording of the September 9th Town Hall Meeting w/ Willie Delwiche & JC Parets.
09/09/21 2PM ET [Read more…]
by Peter
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
Labor Day weekend in Wisconsin usually means one last summer trip up north for one last summer swim in the lake.
For me, this also meant the final jump off the giant raft we built (a ton of steel sitting on 12 barrels, with multiple jumping platforms and a slide that ends six feet above the water). Then, it was time to bring it back to shore to disassemble it for winter storage.
Driving south toward Milwaukee at the end of the long weekend, I saw all sorts of summer toys being towed home for the winter. While it was not quite as warm as in August and the sunset came a bit sooner than it did in July, it was still a lovely evening and a chance to look back and also look ahead.
by Peter
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
Key Takeaway: Risks remain elevated from a sentiment perspective. The bulls continue to hold court as bears are relatively absent despite their rise in recent weeks. Though there are signs that the extended reign in optimism may face a new challenge. Earnings revisions have ceased to rise, taking with it a tailwind that has accompanied the bulls for over a year. Without that tailwind, the possibility of a larger sentiment response to downside pressure on stocks increases. Lower prices have a tendency to beget a pessimistic outlook that in turn begets lower prices. This negative feedback loop could fuel a more complete unwind in sentiment than has been seen to date.
Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Earnings Revisions Stall
Optimistic investors have been benefiting from the tailwind provided by steady upward trend in earnings revisions. That trend has not yet rolled over, but it has stopped rising. The trend stopped rising (but didn’t go down) in Feb/Mar and stocks struggled. There is more room for price volatility to fuel a more pessimistic outlook when the earnings revision trend is flat to down.
by Peter