Robert Sluymer has been a Technical Analyst for close to 3 decades. I really enjoy his intermarket, global macro perspective and the way he brings it all together in a similar way to what we do at our shop. It was hard for me to really disagree with anything Rob said during this podcast episode. It seems to me like him and I are on the same page on many levels. I didn’t make it easy on him, but he certainly brought the goods. I really enjoyed this episode from someone who brings 27 years of institutional experience at RBC and is now at an independent shop at Fundstrat. We discussed Bitcoin, the S&P500, Sector Rotation, Bonds and Precious Metals. This was a good one! Give it a listen [Read more…]
Too Many All-Time Highs To Count
What do we know about all-time highs? They are not a characteristic of a downtrend. New all-time highs are things we see when we’re in a market environment where it is more advantageous to be buying stocks rather them selling them. This is what we have today, whether you like it or not.
The market doesn’t care that you don’t like the president. The market doesn’t care that you think this is only because of buybacks. The market doesn’t care that you think this is fed driven. THE MARKET DOES NOT CARE WHAT YOU THINK ABOUT ANYTHING.
EVER.
Anyway, on Halloween we got new all-time monthly closing highs in the S&P500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Global 100 Index, Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100, S&P 1500, Dow Jones Composite Average, Consumer Discretionary Index, Technology Index, Semiconductor Index, US Real Estate Index, J.P. Morgan Chase, Microsoft, Apple, Google, the Europe Hedged Index Fund and Brazil’s Bovespa, among many others.
Are these reasons to now all of a sudden start selling stocks? My argument is no. [Read more…]
[Premium India] Monthly Conference Call Video Recording October 2019
This is the recording from the live September 2019 Conference Call for Members of the Allstarcharts India! Before getting into individual stock ideas in India, we’re going to first start with the global macro perspective. Once we identify the direction of the underlying trends from a structural and broader view, then we’ll dive into the NIFTY Indexes on both longer-term and short-term timeframe. We want to look at Large-caps, Small-caps and everything in between before getting into the Sector and Industries themselves like Energy, Banks and Pharma.
This is when we finally break things down to the individual stock scenario with identified risk vs reward opportunities. That is what this is all about – aligning ourselves in the direction of the underlying trend while at the same time identifying where the risk is to make sure the potential reward is skewed exponentially in our favor. You will find that throughout this process we discuss Momentum, Fibonacci and Relative Strength. I encourage you to check out the Education Section so you know exactly where I’m coming from when you hear me mention these tools.
Here is the video in full:
If You Trade The Averages, You’ll Get Average Returns
This is a lesson I had to learn the hard way for sure. Early in my career I used to always want to be trading the Russell 2000 or the Nasdaq and sometimes even S&P futures. Some people can do this successfully. Most cannot.
A wise Egyptian man once taught me that, If you trade the Averages, You’ll Get Average Returns. This made a lot of sense to me when he first said it, because I didn’t have great experiences with that strategy up until that point.
The reason I bring this up today is NOT to convince you not to trade the index ETFs or Futures. You do what you have to do! The point of this post is as a reminder that we use Technical Analysis to identify trends. These trends are in all asset classes – Stocks, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Interemarket relationships, Crypto and others. Once we identify the trend, then we can figure out the best way to try to profit from its theme of rising or falling prices.
We’ve been in the camp that US Stocks have been in a sideways range since January of 2018, over 21 months. You can call this a cyclical bear market. You can call it a sideways range. Pick your preferred nomenclature and let’s move on. [Read more…]
99 Problems But A Bear Market Ain’t One
We’ve done the homework. New All-time highs are NOT a characteristic of a downtrend. Go back and check for yourself. I was just listening to the great Brooklyn poet Shawn Carter who inspired the headline. It’s true. This is not a bear market, by definition. So should we be looking for stocks to sell or should we be looking for stocks to buy? [Read more…]
Copper and Emerging Markets Are The New Hotness
Have you noticed that with Tech and Software and other areas grinding sideways or lower, we’ve seen a consistent bid in Emerging Markets? Have you looked at Brazil lately? The last thing stock market bears want to see is rotation into these serial underperformers.
I don’t think this is a tiny story either. I think there is a much bigger theme going on here that would be irresponsible to ignore. First of all, let’s make something clear. Copper prices and Emerging Market stocks move together. You can’t argue with me on this one.
Copper doesn’t move with the “economy”. Copper doesn’t move with the S&P500. Copper is not a “Dr.” of any kind. Copper moves with Emerging Markets. Period:
[Read more…]
How Do America’s Biggest Stocks Look?
If we want to know what the largest institutions in the world are doing, we have to look at the biggest stocks. If you have 100 Billion Dollars to put to work, you’re not buying crypto currencies or pot stocks in Canada. The big boy sandbox is where we want to look.
My friend Todd Sohn says that your best players are supposed to score a lot of your points. The S&P500 is a cap-weighted index, which means that it owns more of the stocks performing well and less of the ones doing poorly. [Read more…]
Money Game Podcast: JOMO – Joy Of Missing Out (EP.10)
We are back with another episode of The Money Game Podcast with Phil Pearlman. Today we talk about JOMO, the Joy Of Missing Out. Phil brings up a point about the amount of work that goes into today’s version of Keeping up with the Joneses: Instagram, for example. People are so concerned with Missing Out (FOMO) that they’re completely ignoring the joys of missing out (JOMO). Saying No gives us the ability and the time to stay focused on what is probably more important, whether it’s health, family, friends, work or whatever else you’re into. We see this in the market constantly, with traders chasing trades and worrying about what trades other people are in and the money other people are making. The beauty of this situation in the market is that we’re guaranteed to get another opportunity. The market doesn’t give us many (any?) other guarantees. The one thing we do know is that there are no called strikes on wall street. We can stay patient and wait for our pitch, because we know for a fact that one is coming.
[Read more…]
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