Neil Blalock is my guest this week on the podcast. I believe he is absolutely the perfect compliment to all of the other guests we’ve had on over the years. While many technical analysis, especially on this podcast, come from an equities background, Neil was raised in Missouri and brought up with commodities all around him. It wasn’t until much later in his career that he focused more on the stock market. Because Technical Analysis can be applied to asset classes of all kinds, Neil is able to use his expertise across markets. What’s funny is that you can take Neil out of the farm, but you can’t take the farm away from him completely. When I asked him about what interests him out there, he went right for the Soybean Markets! Neil just can’t help himself and it’s a beauty to watch. In this episode we dive into the agriculture commodities market as well as the softs, precious metals and ultimately into the equities and interest rate markets. This was a really fun conversation with a different perspective than what you might be used to! [Read more…]
What Will Take The Dow To 30,000?
People don’t like it when I tell them the Dow is going to 30,000. They tend to get even more worked up when I tell them it’s going to 40,000 after that.
I’m old enough to remember a time when stocks going up was a good thing. In my opinion, there is still a massive amount of underexposure in the equities market.
So when I get asked, “Well JC, what’s going to take stocks to those levels?”. I think it’s pretty clear that it’s Technology: [Read more…]
Money Game Podcast: Being A Gamer (Ep.12)
In this Episode of the Money Game Podcast, Pearlman goes off on what a Gamer Lamar Jackson has been. Growing up in Baltimore, Phil a big Ravens fan so we take this opportunity to talk about something really important: Going for it. We look a few weeks back when the head coach believed in Lamar’s enthusiasm to just go for it on 4th down and it most certainly paid off! You live once and have the option to either go out there and get it, or always think back wondering what if? Whatever it is that’s your thing – just go for it!
[Read more…]
Video: Why CFTC Data Keeps Us Selling Gold
In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I talk about why we want to keep selling gold and buy stocks instead. This trade is working and we don’t want to fight it. This has been our base case for months, as you can see here. One of the things that we want to incorporate into our study of price is the positioning of Commercial Hedgers and Speculators, which is published weekly by the CFTC in the Commitment of Traders Report.
In this video I explain how we use this data, why we care, and when to pay attention!
[Read more…]
Why We’re Buying Stocks & Selling Rocks
Let’s take a step back and talk about what a huge waste of money I think it is to own gold. It’s not just that I don’t think it goes up in value, it’s more about what else we could be doing with that money. It’s the opportunity cost here that I believe burns the hole in your pocket. Will our money be treated better in rocks or in stocks? I still think it’s in stocks.
In early October, I put out a note reiterating why we wanted to be selling gold. This is after over a year of a bullish approach towards the yellow metal. So to be clear, I am not a gold bug or a gold hater. The truth is that I couldn’t care less whether gold doubles in price or gets cut in half. It’s not my problem. For me, Gold is just another asset in a humongous world of many assets. If you think it’s anything more than that, I believe you’ve already lost.
As a reminder, a big reason why we were so bullish of Gold throughout the 4th quarter last year and beyond was because Commercial Hedgers had on their largest net long position in history. Commercial hedgers in Gold actually hedge. So the fact that they were net long was a huge tell. This, coupled with the fact that I was incredibly bearish of stocks at the time, made Gold one of our favorite long positions.
Today, the exact opposite is true. I’ve been one of the more vocal stock market bulls throughout the Fall. Commercial Hedgers built their largest net short position in gold of all time, AND Gold hit our upside objectives. There is no, and has been no, reason to own rocks this Fall.
Here is the brick wall that Gold ran into, which was former support back in 2011-2012 before breaking down in 2013. The Principle of Polarity is one of the most important concepts, not just in technical analysis but, in understanding market behavior period. [Read more…]
[Premium] Monthly Conference Call Video Recording November 2019
This is the video recording of the November 2019 Conference Call.
Podcast: The Volatility Episode w/ Andrew Thrasher
Andrew Thrasher is the person I turn to whenever I have questions about Volatility and the $VIX. I know he tracks the data much more closely that I do and he does a good job of simplifying what may seem like complicated concepts. With the current market environment pricing in very low volatility moving forward, one can argue there is too much “complacency” towards stocks. Historically, corrections are sparked from this sort of setup. Who better to bring on to the podcast for this special Volatility Episode than Andrew Thrasher, winner of the 2017 Dow Award for his paper on Forecasting a Volatility Tsunami. In this conversation we talk about the current volatility regime, the VIX curve looking out into early 2020 and how he incorporates breadth data to supplement his volatility analysis. I really enjoyed this conversation and it seems like the perfect time to talk about Volatility! [Read more…]
Earth Breaks Out To All-Time Highs
If you weren’t too busy reading reports of upcoming recessions, you may have noticed that the MSCI World Index broke out to new all-time highs this month. The award for best ETF Ticker goes to the good folks at iShares: $URTH
After a 21-month bear market, the planet Earth is now starting a new leg higher. I continue to believe very strongly that if stocks are above last year’s highs, it is incredibly irresponsible not to be aggressively long. [Read more…]
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