This is the video recording of the March 2020 Conference Call.
[Options Premium] Monthly Conference Call
This is the video recording of the March 2020 Conference Call.
We’re Buying This Non-Correlated Asset
We are not seeing any evidence of a bottom for stocks, yet. In these sorts of scenarios we want to see improvements in market breadth and/or bullish momentum divergences start to pile up. We’re not seeing any of either.
In times like this, where many stocks, indexes and sectors, are in what we call “no-man’s land”, it helps to find non-correlated assets to analyze and perhaps invest in.
One thing that does NOT move up and down with the US Stock Market is Natural Gas. Evidence of this lack of correlation can be seen throughout 2019, for example, as Natty Gas got crushed while US Stocks soared. [Read more…]
Study The Past Month With Me
Every month I host a Conference Call for members of All Star Charts Pro. From the feedback we get from our readers all over the world, this one feature of our Membership is a fan favorite.
A lot has happened in the past month. You hear things about interest rates getting slashed to zero, viruses impacting stocks all over the world and many things that none of us could have predicted a month ago. However, Technical Analysis gave us the ability to get out of the way and avoid this entire mess. Not only did we want to buy bonds, but we simultaneously wanted to sell stocks!
Today I want to share with you the video of last month’s Live Conference Call. I’ve unlocked it so anyone can watch it, not just Premium Members. I’ve gotten a lot of requests to do this, even from paid subscribers, because opening it up serves as a great educational resource for the future. We can all learn from this, myself included.
Watch the February Conference Call (Feb 11, 2020) and Download the slides here.
Let me know what you think.
How’s Your Bear Market Going So Far?
These are the types of markets that are a statisticians dream come true. They get to run all sorts of scans and tests to see how long it’s been since volatility did this or the rate of change in the S&P500 did that. To be honest, it’s all a bunch of bullshit. The market doesn’t care about your stats.
I’m not going to go over all of them because I don’t find them very helpful. In fact, I find them incredibly deceiving and, even worse, distracting. I felt that way on the way up with their stupid, “S&P500 hasn’t moved 1% in a single day in x amount of days….”. Who gives a damn?
Today is no different.
Let’s talk about what actually matters. [Read more…]
All Star Interviews Season 3, Episode 19: Mike Hurley, Chief Market Strategist for Highland Capital Management
Mike Hurley has been an inspiration to me for many years. When it comes to market breadth, this is the guy. He’ll tell you he learned it from his predecessors and how he’s standing on the shoulders of giants and all those things he discusses in this episode, but for me personally, he’s been a great influence for sure. Many of you know how seriously I take my breadth work and how valuable it has been to so many of us for many years. It’s people like Mike and others who have helped my process evolve to where it is today.
This was a really fun podcast for me because the topic of market breadth and internals is so near and dear to my heart. In this podcast episode, Mike and I talk about history and how different turning points in the stock market have been led by breadth deterioration (at tops) and breadth improvement (at bottoms). We also discuss 2020 so far and how breadth was deteriorating well before the S&P500 and Dow hit their ultimate highs. Once again, it was breadth that got us out of the way of trouble this cycle. Give this one a listen. I think it’s one of those episodes that can live for a lifetime and help people many years (or decades) into the future. [Read more…]
We Want To Buy On The Way Back Up
The market goes through periods of volatility. We’ve seen it before and we’ll see it again. For me, it’s all about learning from this experience and coming out of it a better and wiser investor. Notice how you’re behaving and acting during this period.
I know the way I’m feeling during this volatility is much different than my emotions and behavior in 2008 and 2011 and 2015 and 2018. I learned. And I will learn from this one as well to prepare me better for the next go around. I encourage you to do the same.
Today I want to talk about how, “Bottom fishing can be hazardous to your wealth”. The goal is not to try and catch a falling knife (see here why), but to buy on the way back up.
It’s a lie that you have to buy low and sell high. I’ve found it much more helpful to buy high and sell higher. I’d rather pay more knowing that the trend is up, than trying to be a hero and be the first one in. Notice how we didn’t get bearish stocks until late January, after they had already been rolling over for a couple of weeks, instead of the whole way up last year like many others?
So how do we know stocks are on their way back up? I really like the percentage of stocks above their 200 day simple moving average. This is an indicator that gets quoted a lot in bull markets, but for me, it’s most helpful at the end of bear markets. [Read more…]
The Disaster Scenario For Longs
Volatility spiked over the weekend. Here are some thoughts. [Read more…]
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