Jeff Hirsch is the Author of the Annual Stock Trader’s Almanac. He, and before that his father Yale Hirsch, has been publishing the must-read almanac every year since 1967. This year is the 53rd edition of the Almanac and a lot of the smartest traders I know keep the most recent copy on their desk. I personally have issues I’ve kept going back decades. When it comes to Seasonality, whether it’s the 1-year cycle, Presidential cycle, or even intra-month and intra-week cycles, Jeff is the person I turn to first. The month of January brings along a ton of information we can use to help us make decisions in the stock market the rest of the year. The track record is pretty spectacular, as we discuss in this episode. Today, Jeff uses these seasonal trends to help him in his role as Chief Strategist at Probabilities Fund Management. In this episode of the podcast we discuss what the down January might mean for the rest of this year, how markets tend to behave on Election Years and why Seasonal trends are so important to recognize.
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Are Autos Ready To Accelerate To The Downside?
We’ve been outlining our thesis for a choppy environment in stocks both in India and globally for several weeks now and evidence continues to build that the market agrees with us.
With weakness in the broader market, sectors and individual stocks that have not participated remain at risk to lead to the downside.
Today we’re looking at the Auto sector, which looks vulnerable to a swift 10% move to the downside if support at its multi-month lows breaks.
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New All-Time Lows For Banks Relative To The Stock Market
It’s been a while since we’ve had a conversation about new all-time lows for stocks. But this week we saw the Regional Bank Index Fund close at new all-time relative lows. This is the lowest they’ve ever been.
What’s fascinating is how this is happening just as the Financials Index Fund is attempting to break out to new all-time highs, finally exceeding their 2007 peak before the financial crisis.
Here in this chart you can see the $XLF trying to finally get through those 2007 highs for the first time ever. But Regional Banks are not confirming these new highs. Neither is Momentum or Relative Strength. [Read more…]
Here Come Higher Bond Prices
Over the past month, Bonds are up a bunch as the collapse in Interest Rates has resumed. We jumped on board this bond trade last month and so far it’s working.
Meanwhile, a majority of U.S. stocks are actually down over the past month. While the S&P500, Dow Industrials and Nasdaq100 have gone on to make new highs, the NYSE Advance-Decline line (stocks only) did not, Small-caps did not, Dow Transports did not, and a majority of individual stocks did not. It’s only a minority of names doing the work, particularly large-cap stocks and some higher dividend paying areas like REITs and Utilities.
When you run the numbers, most stocks in the U.S. are down over the past month, with negative average and median returns for the Russell3000 components. It’s the bonds that are up and I think they’re just getting started.
Today’s chart focuses on the Intermarket Relationships we lean on to supplement our absolute price analysis. With rates rolling over again, are stocks and commodities confirming what the bond market is doing? In a simple answer: Yes! [Read more…]
Media Appearance: Raising Cash Now Is Prudent
As you guys know, we’ve had a much more defensive approach to the stock market over the past few weeks, especially compared to how bullish we had been for so long. There is a time to be big and aggressive and a time to be small and cash heavy. I believe we’re currently in the latter of those two categories.
Here’s the clip in full: [Read more…]
Buyers Defend Support in Aerospace & Defense
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
Thank you to everyone who responded to this week’s mystery chart.
There was a nice diversity of responses. Many said they were anticipating a break of the support line and would get short against that level while others were buyers as long as prices held above it. But the majority took a neutral approach, preferring to wait for the current range to resolve before having a directional bias.
A sound argument could be made for any of these answers in my opinion, so with that as our backdrop let’s take a look at this week’s chart.
Pumping The Brakes In These Gas Names (For Now)
We’ve been highlighting the relative strength of certain Gas names in the Energy space since August, and they’ve worked wonders on the long side.
Although we’ve issued several tactical updates since then (December and January), I wanted to use today as an opportunity to revisit this thesis and update our approach given many of our price objectives have been hit.
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These Two FMCG Stocks Are Back In Fashion
The Fast Moving Consumer Goods Index continues to chop around, but there remains an opportunity in many individual index components on the long side (while avoiding the weak ones).
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