Did The Economist just call the bottom for the market?
Take a look at the latest cover.
They’re asking the question, “What would happen if the markets crashed?” [Read more…]
Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by JC
Did The Economist just call the bottom for the market?
Take a look at the latest cover.
They’re asking the question, “What would happen if the markets crashed?” [Read more…]
by Louis Sykes
As technicians, our job is to respond and react to the evidence in front of us.
The market has a funny way of punishing those who let their ego and opinions drive their decision-making instead of objectively following money flow.
We say it over and over again: As a trader, your only job is to follow money flow. Everything else is noise.
This morning, we can’t help but think about the resolution from this rally seen in a handful of crypto stocks. I think Microstrategy $MSTR and Coinbase $COIN show it better than any other.
What will it be?
I have one trade that stands out head and shoulders above the rest as my number one F-up. I really screwed this one up.
Financially, it was my best trade of the year. Probably my best trade in several years…
But it still stands out as my worst trade of all time.
This was circa 2013. I had recently moved to Boulder, CO and life was good. New vistas, new friends, new environments, new everything.
And one thing I did which was new for me (at the time), was I had come up with a long-term bullish thesis on a stock. And over the course of a couple days, I wrote up about 5 pages of notes on my yellow legal pad outlining exactly how I’d play my bullish thesis using options.
The TL;DR version of my strategy is that I was going to purchase slightly out-of-the-money long calls with about a month until expiration. And then if/when the stock traded up and through the strike price of my long calls, I would take that opportunity to roll those options up and out to the next monthly series, using the proceeds from the sale of the existing ITM options to purchase as many new OTM options in the next month as possible. (For example, I’d sell 5 calls with Feb expiration for $5.00 a contract, then buy 7 calls with March expiration for $3.50 apiece. My position would grow in size, and I’d even extract a little leftover credit. Wash, rinse, repeat all the way to the moon.)
This was a super-aggressive, GO FOR IT! trade. [Read more…]
by Peter
This is the video recording of the February 10th Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche
02/10/22 2:00 PM ET [Read more…]
by Peter
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
There is plenty of chatter today about inflation, the bond market, and the Fed.
I have a couple charts to share – and a couple key points worth making.
Inflation continues to run much hotter than a year ago and the Fed is still playing catch-up. The yearly change in the median CPI was at its highest level in a decade going into COVID, and is now at its highest level in 30+ years. Pressure is not letting up, and the 3-month change in the median CPI has surged to its highest level on record.
by JC
This week we got a terrific reminder about weighing all the evidence properly from new Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel.
In a recent podcast, the new Dolphins coach was asked about the role of analytics in today’s game and how it impacts his decision making.
I thought McDaniel’s answer was a great one and really resonates with how we approach markets here at All Star Charts, [Read more…]
by Ian Culley
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
The middle of the curve is catching higher as the US 10-year Treasury yield pushes toward its next milestone at 2.00%.
Now that we’re starting to see some follow-through to the upside, it raises the question…
Are these new highs in the 10-year sustainable?
With inflation expectations just off their highs, short-term rates surging in the US, and yields ripping higher across the globe, we think the answer is a resounding yes!
A few weeks ago, we discussed how global yields — particularly those in developed Europe — were confirming the new highs for US yields.
Since then, we’ve only seen this trend accelerate. With central banks turning increasingly hawkish, rates continue to break out to new highs around the world.
Today, we’re going to dive further into this theme by taking a look at a handful of benchmark rates outside the US.
Let’s dive in! [Read more…]
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as a market of stocks.
Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.
We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions… but there are always stocks that are going up.
The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too.
We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club. We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics.
Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.
But, now, we’re also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.