This is the video recording of the December 2020 Conference Call.
RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (12-18-2020)
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts
At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching in order to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
We continue to pound the table on leadership down the market-cap scale. There’s been strong evidence over the past few weeks/months suggesting this is a structural trend reversal in the large vs small-cap ratio.
Many key indexes – both large and small, sit at crucial inflection points. Many of the small and mid-cap indexes are also extended and sporting extreme momentum readings, making for a logical level for sellers to step in.
It would be a healthy development for SMIDs to take a breather here and pass the baton back to large-caps for a bit.
RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (12-11-2020)
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts
At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching in order to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
In last week’s report, we discussed the continued rotation into SMIDS, international markets, and risk assets. Our conclusion is and continues to be that the market remains in a very healthy state of order.
FICC markets are also confirming the move higher in equities.
From a short-term perspective, SMIDS digesting their recent gains would be a healthy development. [Read more…]
4 Signs of a Market Correction
During bull markets I always get asked about when it’s going to stop. I don’t get asked about stock market bubbles and unsustainable valuations during bear markets, that’s for sure. Those environments come with other kinds of funny questions.
This morning I woke up to one of my college buddies telling me that tech valuations are too high and that this has to be a bubble.
Journalists ask me every day how this can possibly continue. “Too high”, they say. “Too fast”, they tell me. “Fed Printing”, they claim. “It’s only 5 stocks!!!”… I can’t.
Anyway, maybe this is the top. Maybe we are about to crash. Maybe valuations are too high….
But there’s no evidence at all that this is the top. New All-time highs are not characteristic of downtrends. They are things we see regularly in uptrends. In fact, new highs are perfectly normal, and should even be expected in this type of environment.
The opinions of my college friends don’t matter. The opinion of the bond market? Yes, that matters. Currencies? Yup. Metals? Yea probably.
We already covered last week that credit continues to point to higher stock prices. It has nothing to do with a virus or vaccines. It’s only been about credit since this rally started 9 months ago. Don’t get it twisted.
Anyway, to continue with that conversation, I wanted to point out a few other places where we will definitely see signs of a stock market top, if/when it comes. Here is that chart: [Read more…]
[Video] Small-caps, Germany & Which Rocks To Own
This week, Julie and I talk about some of the things that stood out the most on last week’s Monthly Chart Review.
Among them were the Market Capitalization rotation into Small & Mid-caps and out of those Mega-cap stocks.
Germany and Japan making new highs leading the international charge higher.
And which rocks would we rather own: Precious Metals or Base Metals?
Check it out:
Are US Interest Rates Going Higher?
I think this is an important discussion. Which way are rates headed?
Remember, Interest Rates setting up for a collapse was one of the reasons we were so bearish equities in late January, and looking to own bonds instead.
The thought process in January was the following: If 10s are going to break their 2012 & 2016 lows, is that most likely happening in an environment where stocks are doing well? Or are rates collapsing most likely taking place in an environment where stocks are under pressure?
Our bet was the latter. We used rates as a leading indicator.
Today we’re doing the same thing. But the data coming in is the exact opposite.
First of all, here are US rates going out last week at new 9-month highs: [Read more…]
RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (12-04-2020)
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts
At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the relative strength trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching in order to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
In last week’s report, we outlined how the market was in an incredibly healthy state of order. We’ve been seeing rotation into SMIDS and Micro-Caps, strong breadth, and a sustained bid for Growth, particularly down the market-cap scale.
This week, we’re harping on a similar theme.
The weight of the evidence, particularly from an intermediate and long-term time horizon, looks excellent.
But from a more short-term and tactical perspective, it would be healthy for many indexes down the market-cap scale to digest their gains. Many sector indexes and ratios are at key inflection points, so we’ll be taking in the fresh data as we go to see just how strong the hands of buyers truly are.
[Video] Big Trends Monthly w/ Josh Brown – EP.5
Every month we get a fresh batch of Monthly Candlesticks. It only happens 12 times a year.
I promise you guys from the bottom of my heart that there is no other part of my entire process that provides as much value and information as my monthly chart review. Premium Members can access the Chartbook here. Stay tuned as we’ll be adding more workbooks of charts this week to the Chartbook section.
In the meantime, my friend Josh Brown and I have been doing these short monthly videos since the summer. They’re fun and I like how he pushes back against me sometimes. In other interviews they make it too easy on me. I like these!
This month we talk about the breakout in Biotech, Market-cap rotation into Small-caps, European Stocks performing well and what we’re doing about Gold & Bitcoin.
Here’s this month’s video in full:
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