Whenever in doubt, zoom out. Monthly charts are a great way to do that. On November 30th we got new daily, weekly and monthly candles. This is a lot of new data that we have to work with.
Here is what I’m seeing out there: [Read more…]
Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by JC
Whenever in doubt, zoom out. Monthly charts are a great way to do that. On November 30th we got new daily, weekly and monthly candles. This is a lot of new data that we have to work with.
Here is what I’m seeing out there: [Read more…]
by Tom Bruni
During our members-only conference call and our trade management post we discussed why a more neutral approach is best as we identify whether equities are going to consolidate at higher levels or begin to roll over again. We also discussed the importance of taking some profits quickly in an environment that produces whipsaws in both directions.
Over the last two weeks we’ve seen a number of our long ideas failing and more of our short ideas working, suggesting that lower prices are likely ahead in the short-term and that we should continue to err on the short side of stocks. This post will outline some of the evidence we’re seeing supporting this thesis, as well as adding a number of short ideas to our trade list from October and November.
by Tom Bruni
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
Over the last few weeks we’ve looked at signs of rising stress in the credit market, interesting relative strength in bond prices, and a trade on the long side in treasury bonds, but today I want to take a comprehensive look at the bond market and highlight what it’s signaling for rates and risk appetite in general.
by JC
This is the video recording of the November 2018 Conference Call.
by JC
Frank Cappelleri is one of my favorite guys to listen to. He brings a unique perspective because of a lot of his experience on Wall Street. Early in his career he spent time working at Smith Barney with legends Alan Shaw and Louise Yamada. He then experienced his first bear market after March 2000 working with former Lehman trader John Schlitz. Frank has been at Instinet, which is owned by Nomura, for a long time and is constantly in touch with some of the smartest guys in the business. I think he’s as good a technician as anyone and in this episode he shows us just that. We discuss the market implications of a rising US Dollar and why he no longer has a target above 3050 for the S&P500. I was really looking forward to this conversation and we’re lucky we get to pick his brain for a bit. I hope you enjoy this one! [Read more…]
by Tom Bruni
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
Interest rates are on the move, with the Ten-Year Treasury Yield breaking 3% once again after working off its failed breakout attempt from May. One relationship that’s highly correlated with the Ten-Year Yield is Regional Banks vs REITS. We’ve written about this relationship in 2016 and 2017, but it’s at an important inflection point so today’s chart is going to revisit it.
by JC
I’m not the kind of guy that likes to give funny names to price patterns in the market. For me, it’s more about the implications of that market behavior and less about what we call it. Today I want to take a look at US Treasury Bonds and what some price observers might refer to as a ‘Head & Shoulders Top’.
The reason this is a popular pattern is because, as humans, it is easy for us to identify and relate to. Each of us have a pair of shoulders and a head that stands in between and above them. In today’s chart, the Head and 2 Shoulders are fairly easy to point out. We’re looking at the US Treasury Bond ETF $TLT: [Read more…]
by JC
This is the most valuable analysis I do every month. When you sit there with some music on and just rip through monthly charts, it really gives you perspective. We’re taking a step back and reanalyzing the trends. It’s easy to get caught in the day-to-day noise. This exercise helps avoid getting whipped around. I encourage everyone to make their own list of Monthly Candles. [Read more…]