This is the video recording of our June 2nd Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session
The Mexican Peso Packs a Punch
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
The US dollar is on the ropes as global currencies bounce back.
After failing to hold its breakout earlier in the month, the USD looks vulnerable against a growing number of currencies.
The pound and euro are catching higher. The Swiss franc is rebounding off its recent lows. And the commodity-centric Australian and Canadian dollars remain resilient.
We can add the Mexican peso to this list, as the USD/MXN cross broke down to fresh 52-week lows yesterday. This breakdown supports the near-term bearish argument for the dollar.
And it also offers a great trade setup.
Let’s take a look.
The Failed Moves in Forex Land
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
The US dollar is front and center as risk assets hang in the balance.
Earlier in the month, we placed the Australian and Canadian dollars on breakdown alert as they completed major topping patterns.
US dollar strength was expanding at the time, and the AUD and CAD were the last dominos to fall.
Or so it seemed.
What started as strong downside resolutions for these top commodity currencies quickly turned into potential failed breakdowns.
Now that the most resilient currencies are snapping back against King Dollar, it’s compromising the broad US dollar rally and could usher in a more favorable environment for risk assets.
Let’s discuss what it means for stocks and commodities if these failed breakdowns resolve higher.
[Premium] Three Charts For The Week Ahead
We retired our “Five Bull Market Barometers” in 2020 to make room for a new weekly post that’s focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.
This is that post, so let’s jump into this week’s edition.
[Premium India] Monthly Conference Call Video Recording May 2022
This is the recording from the live May 2022 Conference Call for Members of the Allstarcharts India! Before getting into individual stock ideas in India, we’re going to first start with the global macro perspective. Once we identify the direction of the underlying trends from a structural and broader view, then we’ll dive into the NIFTY Indexes on both longer-term and short-term timeframes. We want to look at Large-caps, Small-caps, and everything in between before getting into the Sector and Industries themselves like Energy, Banks, and Pharma.
This is when we finally break things down to the individual stock scenario with identified risk vs reward opportunities. That is what this is all about – aligning ourselves in the direction of the underlying trend while at the same time identifying where the risk is to make sure the potential reward is skewed exponentially in our favor. You will find that throughout this process we discuss Momentum, Fibonacci and Relative Strength. I encourage you to check out the Education Section so you know exactly where I’m coming from when you hear me mention these tools.
Here is the video in full:
[Premium] Mid-Month Conference Call Video Recording May 2022
The DXY Is at a Critical Juncture
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
Copper is challenging the lower bounds of its range.
The AUD/JPY is attempting to reclaim former support.
And the S&P 500 is digging in at the AVWAP from its COVID lows.
These are some of the most important charts and levels in the market right now.
But there’s one chart that tops them all…
In our view, the US Dollar Index $DXY is the key to this market.
It’s currently struggling to resolve higher from a multi-year base after reaching its highest level since 2002.
The breakout could stick and lead to a sustained uptrend. Or, it might fail. Either way, the outcome will have wide-ranging impacts on risk assets.
Commodity Currencies Crumble
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
Despite the rising US Dollar Index, strength among commodity-centric currencies has been a key theme for much of this year.
Today, that’s no longer the case.
The rally in the USD is accelerating, as dollar strength broadens to even the most resilient currencies.
Two of the top commodity currencies – the Australian and Canadian dollars – are undercutting the lower bounds of their current ranges and making fresh 52-week lows.
These breakdowns mean the path of least resistance is now lower. If these are valid resolutions, we’re looking at increased headwinds for risk assets.
Let’s look at a couple charts of the AUD and the CAD, highlight the levels we’re watching, and discuss what continued weakness in these major currencies means for stocks and commodities.
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