This is the video recording of the September 2022 Mid-month Conference Call.
We discussed:
Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by JC
This is the video recording of the September 2022 Mid-month Conference Call.
We discussed:
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
The US Dollar Index $DXY is on cruise control with nothing ahead but an open road.
The few obstacles that stood in its way are falling to the wayside. That’s right – the handful of commodity currencies that have refused to roll over during the past six months are beginning to slip.
Before we get to these fresh breakdowns, let’s set the scene with two currencies that have been anything but resilient – the euro and the British pound.
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
Sometimes you have to go back to the basics.
One simple concept has served me well over the years: Don’t fight the primary trend.
There are many other best practices I use to maintain my sanity regardless of underlying market conditions. But sticking with the underlying trend is fundamental to any trader’s success.
As Charles Dow established more than a hundred years ago, trends persist! This concept is one of the key Dow Theory tenets and forms the foundation of any trend-following strategy.
It’s our job as technicians, traders, and investors to identify the primary trend and ride it as long as possible.
And it’s difficult to imagine a stronger trend in 2022 than the rising dollar.
From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
We held our September Monthly Strategy Session Tuesday night. Premium Members can click here to watch the recording and review the chartbook.
Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.
By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends.
This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.
With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.
by JC
You’ve heard me say it a million times by now.
It’s going to be really difficult to make money long most stocks or crypto the rest of the year if the US Dollar remains strong.
Check out last night’s video about what we’re doing about it.
We got just a little bit of Dollar weakness starting in mid-July and stocks ripped higher. Thousands of points added to the Dow, Ethereum doubled and the average stock on the Nasdaq rallied over 40%.
We saw one of the most historic short-squeezes in history. And all it took was just a little bit of Dollar weakness. It wasn’t even that much.
But then once that Dollar strength came back last month, the bid in stocks and crypto disappeared.
Here’s a zoomed out look at the negative correlation between stocks and the Dollar: [Read more…]
by JC
This is the video recording of our September 6th Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
Did we just experience the largest bear market rally in history?
Or did the June low mark the bottom for stocks?
Instead of getting caught up in the “bull vs. bear” debate or, even worse, attempting to pick the bottom, let’s focus on a singular fact…
US dollar headwinds persist. And whether it was the bottom or not, as long as this is the case, stocks are likely to remain under pressure.
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
Currency markets have provided stellar trading opportunities this year.
It isn’t always this way.
Last year was rough. False breakouts and whipsaws were the norm, as most forex pairs and crosses chopped sideways in trendless ranges.
Many of those consolidations have now resolved, as currency markets have begun to trend again. And it’s hard to find a stronger primary trend to bet against than the declining Japanese yen.
We’ve written about the yen multiple times in the past few months, pointing out that The Yen Provides the Base and joking that we could profit by simply buying Anything in Yen.
Today, we’ll follow up by outlining three tactical setups to bet on further yen weakness.