We are in the midst of a bull-run and the events over the last ten days or so have sprung up some doubts over the current move with regards to the repercussions of the rise in bond yield and the US dollar.
Commodities Weekly (03-05-2021)
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
When reviewing our chartbook this week, one major theme that stood out is the relentless bid we continue to see in Crude Oil.
Most risk-on commodities have consolidated or pulled back recently as the dollar has rebounded back to its highest level in over three months.
But, not oil…
We’re Buyers Of Gold Miners… Again.
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
We think it’s time to buy Gold Miners again, specifically the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF $GDX.
The yellow metal has not been a great place to deploy capital over the last 6 months as the environment has significantly favored stocks over rocks... and risk-assets over defensive ones in general.
Owning Gold or Gold Miners has been nothing more but opportunity cost. However, there is mounting evidence that suggests now might be the time to jump back into this trade.
First, Commodities have really been working as an asset class. We’ve been pointing this out for months now, from Industrial Metals and Ags to even petroleum-based commodities.
Although through the early innings of this Commodities resurgence, Gold and Gold Miners have taken a back seat as prices peaked all the way back in the summer of last year and have been trending lower since.
We think that could be changing as we’re seeing signs of something brewing underneath the surface in Precious Metals. Let’s dive in.
[Premium] Monthly Charts Strategy Session March 2021
This is the video recording of our March 1, 2021 Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session
[Podcast] Let’s Talk About Bonds, Baby! w/ Larry McDonald
Whenever I want to talk about bonds, I always know just who to call. Larry McDonald is a former bond trader at Lehman Brothers and author of the book, Colossal Failure of Common Sense. I highly encourage you to give it a read, especially if you’re looking for some perspective on what really happened back in 2007-2008.
It’s no coincidence that I reached out to him to come on the podcast. Larry and I had a very timely conversation in February of last year. So with the bond market recently losing 5-6 Trillion dollars in such a short period of time, who better to talk to than by favorite bond trader.
This was fun. We talked about the current move in rates and how that’s impacting stocks and bond markets around the world. If you’re looking for color on Credit Spreads and Yield curves, this is the episode for you.
What’s better than a good conversation about bonds? [Read more…]
Is The Commodity Supercycle Extravaganza Here?
We’ve been talking about Commodities and a possible upcoming supercycle in this asset class.
The reason we’re inclined to this view is that we’re seeing signs of this on several different charts across the globe. Now when that happens, we’ve got to sit up and notice.
[Read more…]
RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (02-22-2021)
From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza
At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories, along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
Every major asset class on Earth continues to illustrate risk-taking behavior on the part of market participants.
Yields, Oil, Equities, Base Metals, the Australian Dollar — there’s an overwhelming amount of new highs in offensive areas of the market right now. The weight of the evidence continues to suggest that we want to be buyers, not sellers, of stocks.
The same bullish developments and themes that we’ve been pounding the table on for months continue to reinforce our stance. Some examples: the rotation into SMIDs, breadth thrusts, the reflation trade, and defensive alternatives making relative lows.
As we said last week, bulls are flush with options to make money in this environment. At the same time, the list of opportunities for bears continues to dwindle by the day.
Commodities Put The Pedal To The Metal
From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Ian Culley @ianculley
We just revised and updated our Commodities chartbook and there probably couldn’t have been a better time as we believe we’ve just entered the early innings of a new Commodities Supercycle.
As we reviewed each passing chart our bullish thesis on commodities was reinforced as the same overarching theme became clearer and clearer… Everything seems to be trending higher!
With a slew of massive bases, bullish breakouts, and major trend reversals, this once left-for-dead asset class is now demanding investors’ attention.
And participation continues to expand as we’re seeing strength across all subgroups. From base metals to grains and softs, it’s all working.
Now let’s dive into a few charts that illustrate this theme.
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