It’s the weekly bond edition of What the FICC?
I thought it was odd bonds didn’t react to last week’s rate hike. Regardless, the lack of volatility represents a positive development for risk assets, especially stocks.
Check it out!
Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by Ian Culley
It’s the weekly bond edition of What the FICC?
I thought it was odd bonds didn’t react to last week’s rate hike. Regardless, the lack of volatility represents a positive development for risk assets, especially stocks.
Check it out!
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley
Markets don’t always trend higher or lower. In fact, traders often deal with churn – which sometimes is nothing more than a range-bound mess.
“Sideways” is a trend that’s all too easy to forget after last year’s historic volatility. Even bonds became risk assets in 2022!
I found it odd when bonds failed to react to last week’s rate hike along with other long-duration assets.
But the lack of bond market volatility might be exactly what risk assets, especially stocks, need right now.
by JC
It starts with credit.
Bottom line.
This isn’t crypto where all these shitcoins can go to zero and it won’t matter to anyone who matters.
These aren’t marijuana stocks that are irrelevant to global asset allocation.
This is the bond market.
This is the biggest and baddest of them all.
We’re talking about almost a $120 Trillion asset class.
It’s just math: if there is real systemic risk in the equities market, you’re going to see it in credit.
There’s no way around it.
And so how are credit spreads doing?
As tight as they have been since last summer, and getting tighter: [Read more…]
by JC
This is the video recording of our February 6th Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley
The FOMC handed down the expected 25 basis point rate hike yesterday. Yet markets didn’t react until Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke 30 minutes later.
That’s right, he dropped the D-word – “disinflation.”
To be clear, I don’t care what he said. Instead of hanging on the Fed Chair’s words, I prefer to focus on the markets. I find it more enjoyable.
But, boy, did markets respond!
The most striking aspect of yesterday’s reaction was highlighted by the relative strength of growth stocks.
by Ian Culley
It’s the weekly bond edition of What the FICC?
The near-term direction of US interest rates will play a major role in how market conditions resolve in the coming weeks. This is a chart you want to monitor closely…
Check it out!
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley
Choppy conditions prevail.
Sure, risk appetite is returning as long-duration assets catch a bid.
The ARK Innovation ETF $ARKK, Tesla $TSLA, and even the Emerging Markets Bond ETF $EMB show impressive near-term strength.
Nevertheless, the overall market is still a range-bound mess…
The S&P 500 churns below overhead supply. A decisive downside resolution in the US Dollar Index $DXY has yet to occur. And commodities – at least at the index level – refuse to violate key support levels.
I doubt the markets will clean themselves up in the coming weeks. But if you want insight into the near-term direction of the major asset classes, keep an eye on this one chart…
by JC
This is the recording from the live January 2023 Conference Call for Members of the Allstarcharts India! Before getting into individual stock ideas in India, we’re going to first start with the global macro perspective. Once we identify the direction of the underlying trends from a structural and broader view, then we’ll dive into the NIFTY Indexes on both longer-term and short-term timeframes. We want to look at Large-caps, Small-caps, and everything in between before getting into the Sector and Industries themselves like Energy, Banks, and Pharma.
This is when we finally break things down to the individual stock scenario with identified risk vs reward opportunities. That is what this is all about – aligning ourselves in the direction of the underlying trend while at the same time identifying where the risk is to make sure the potential reward is skewed exponentially in our favor. You will find that throughout this process we discuss Momentum, Fibonacci and Relative Strength. I encourage you to check out the Education Section so you know exactly where I’m coming from when you hear me mention these tools.
Here is the video in full: