This is the video recording of the November 2019 Conference Call.
[Options Premium] Resting Interest Rates
There might not be a bull market everywhere. It seems interest rates are taking a breather here and deciding their next move. And while they consolidate, options markets are currently pricing in some elevated premiums that are pretty tempting to sell if you’re a believer in options volatility mean reversion (I am!).
Podcast: The Volatility Episode w/ Andrew Thrasher
Andrew Thrasher is the person I turn to whenever I have questions about Volatility and the $VIX. I know he tracks the data much more closely that I do and he does a good job of simplifying what may seem like complicated concepts. With the current market environment pricing in very low volatility moving forward, one can argue there is too much “complacency” towards stocks. Historically, corrections are sparked from this sort of setup. Who better to bring on to the podcast for this special Volatility Episode than Andrew Thrasher, winner of the 2017 Dow Award for his paper on Forecasting a Volatility Tsunami. In this conversation we talk about the current volatility regime, the VIX curve looking out into early 2020 and how he incorporates breadth data to supplement his volatility analysis. I really enjoyed this conversation and it seems like the perfect time to talk about Volatility! [Read more…]
Earth Breaks Out To All-Time Highs
If you weren’t too busy reading reports of upcoming recessions, you may have noticed that the MSCI World Index broke out to new all-time highs this month. The award for best ETF Ticker goes to the good folks at iShares: $URTH
After a 21-month bear market, the planet Earth is now starting a new leg higher. I continue to believe very strongly that if stocks are above last year’s highs, it is incredibly irresponsible not to be aggressively long. [Read more…]
The Wisdom in WisdomTree ETFs
There is information everywhere. We analyze both the Indexes and the ETFs. We look at markets all over the world priced in both local currency and in US Dollars. We often use Gold as the denominator as well as the Indexes themselves to analyze relative strength. It’s one big giant web of money flow.
Today I want to call your attention to an interesting divergence that has come at important turning points in the past. Specifically I’m referring to the Wisdom Tree Hedged Exchange Traded Funds for Europe and Japan: $HEDJ and $DXJ respectively. These funds are priced in local currencies as opposed to most other ETFs around the world that are priced in US Dollars.
First, here is the Europe Index Fund priced in Euro breaking out to all-time highs. I’ve been chuckling to myself a lot lately because when was the last time you could say the words “Europe” and “all-time” highs in the same sentence with a straight face? [Read more…]
[Options Premium] Chinese Internet, Yo!
I know. I know. China.
Anyone else tired of the headlines? Or are you like me and don’t even pay attention?
Once again, all we do is follow price and let supply and demand lead us to opportunities. Leave the headlines to Johnny Piker.
So with that out of the way, lets take a look at an opportunity in the Chinese Internet sector. [Read more…]
The Wall Street Noise Machine
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
In March I wrote a blog post explaining why I don’t consume traditional media and the value I find in tuning out “the noise.”
I got a lot of great feedback on that post and feel that it’s a lesson worth reiterating every once in a while, so today I want to share a great example of the constant barrage of information we have working against us as market participants.
Better Questions For Better Answers
Technical Analysis doesn’t give us all the answers. But it certainly goes a long way in helping us ask the right questions. That’s really what this is about. No one knows what is going to happen next. Contrary to popular belief, this makes it an even playing field (don’t @ me). Where the advantage truly lies is in those who analyze the behavior of the market vs those who ignore it.
There are many investors, most in fact, who completely disregard the behavior of the market in favor of some other brilliant strategy they believed they’ve come up with. My point is, if at the end of the day, price is the only thing that will pay us, why not start and end the entire process with the study of that price?
Not to get too philosophical on you guys, but just try to think about the things you’re thinking about. What are the questions you’re asking? Because you certainly don’t have the answers. You have no answers, and neither do I. We have, what we think, are higher probability and lower probability outcomes. But we don’t actually know. [Read more…]
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