The Mega-cap names have been digesting their 2020 gains since early September. Go one by one and most of them are down over the past 3+ months. All except the last one at the bottom.
The Tesla bulls will love this one: [Read more…]
Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by JC
The Mega-cap names have been digesting their 2020 gains since early September. Go one by one and most of them are down over the past 3+ months. All except the last one at the bottom.
The Tesla bulls will love this one: [Read more…]
by Louis Sykes
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts
At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching in order to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
In last week’s report, we discussed the continued rotation into SMIDS, international markets, and risk assets. Our conclusion is and continues to be that the market remains in a very healthy state of order.
FICC markets are also confirming the move higher in equities.
From a short-term perspective, SMIDS digesting their recent gains would be a healthy development. [Read more…]
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.
Welcome to our “Under The Hood” column for the week ending December 11, 2020.
What we do is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.
We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names. There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: A list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.
Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options activity, or simply our proprietary lists of trending tickers… there is a lot of overlap.
The bottom line is there are a million ways to skin this cat. Relying on our entire arsenal of data makes us confident that we’re producing the best list each week and gives us more optionality in terms of finding the most favorable trade setups for our clients.
by JC
I’m not sure when this happened. When did they start grouping any company that uses a computer into the Technology Sector?
First of all, 80% of the FAANG stocks represent a ZERO weighting in the Technology Sector. ZERO.
Facebook and Google are in the Communications Index, together representing approximately 45% of that sector. Combined, $FB & $GOOD represent ZERO percent of the Technology Sector. Netflix $NFLX accounts for another 4% or so Communications, and again, a ZERO weighting in Tech.
Furthermore, Amazon represents approximately 21% of the Consumer Discretionary Index. When you look at the Technology Sector, you’ll find that $AMZN has a ZERO weighting.
The latest version of journalists grouping any company that uses a computer into the “Technology Sector” is Airbnb and DoorDash. Neither one of these are in the Tech sector, but instead are both in the Communications Index. Together $ABNB & $DASH represent a ZERO weighting in Tech.
Meanwhile these are the fairytales they feed you… [Read more…]
JC published a bullish piece on Japan today. He’s been pounding the table on the potential for a massive base breakout for some time. He’s so exited about it, we even traveled to Tokyo last year to see what’s going for ourselves!!
One of the names he mentioned in the post stood out to me and I’m willing to step in and take a position. [Read more…]
by JC
Japan continues to rally as it breaks out to new 29-year highs.
And just think, the Japanese Nikkei225 can rip another 40% from here and still not get back to its highs from the late 1980s. That’s how long it takes a bubble of that magnitude to correct itself.
Let’s remember, at its peak in 1989, the real estate value of just one single park in Tokyo was worth more than all of the real estate in the state of California combined. I’ve been to that park. It’s ok I guess. But not worth more than all of Cali, quite obviously.
So here’s what that Nikkei chart looks like today: [Read more…]
by JC
During bull markets I always get asked about when it’s going to stop. I don’t get asked about stock market bubbles and unsustainable valuations during bear markets, that’s for sure. Those environments come with other kinds of funny questions.
This morning I woke up to one of my college buddies telling me that tech valuations are too high and that this has to be a bubble.
Journalists ask me every day how this can possibly continue. “Too high”, they say. “Too fast”, they tell me. “Fed Printing”, they claim. “It’s only 5 stocks!!!”… I can’t.
Anyway, maybe this is the top. Maybe we are about to crash. Maybe valuations are too high….
But there’s no evidence at all that this is the top. New All-time highs are not characteristic of downtrends. They are things we see regularly in uptrends. In fact, new highs are perfectly normal, and should even be expected in this type of environment.
The opinions of my college friends don’t matter. The opinion of the bond market? Yes, that matters. Currencies? Yup. Metals? Yea probably.
We already covered last week that credit continues to point to higher stock prices. It has nothing to do with a virus or vaccines. It’s only been about credit since this rally started 9 months ago. Don’t get it twisted.
Anyway, to continue with that conversation, I wanted to point out a few other places where we will definitely see signs of a stock market top, if/when it comes. Here is that chart: [Read more…]
2008-2009 was a dark period for the banking industry. The “Financial Crisis” nearly brought the whole system to its knees. Stocks in household name banks became penny stocks (Citibank!), Warren Buffet had to rescue Goldman Sachs, and a few had to put themselves up for sale (Merrill Lynch), or even became extinct (Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers).
For some long-term investors (and former employees in this sector), this is still a fresh wound.
But charts in this sector are starting to tell a different story.